A cohort study: temporal trends in prevalence of antecedents, comorbidities and mortality in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians with first heart failure hospitalization, 2000–2009

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Little is known about trends in risk factors and mortality for Aboriginal Australians with heart failure (HF). This population-based study evaluated trends in prevalence of risk factors, 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality following first HF hospitalization among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Western Australians in the decade 2000–2009. METHODS: Linked-health data were used to identify patients (20–84 years), with a first-ever HF hospitalization. Trends in demographics, comorbidities, interventions and risk factors were evaluated. Logistic and Cox regression models were fitted to test and compare trends over time in 30-day and 1-year mortality. RESULTS: Of 17,379 HF patients, 1,013 (5.8 %) were Aboriginal. Compared with 2000–2002, the prevalence (as history) of myocardial infarction and hypertension increased more markedly in 2006–2009 in Aboriginal (versus non-Aboriginal) patients, while diabetes and chronic kidney disease remained disproportionately higher in Aboriginal patients. Risk factor trends, including the Charlson comorbidity index, increased over time in younger Aboriginal patients. Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality did not change over the decade in either group. Risk-adjusted 1-year mortality (in 30-day survivors) was non-significantly higher in Aboriginal patients in 2006–2008 compared with 2000–2002 (hazard ratio (HR) 1.44; 95 % CI 0.85-2.41; p-trend = 0.47) whereas it decreased in non-Aboriginal patients (HR 0.87; 95 % CI 0.78-0.97; p-trend = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Between 2000 and 2009, the prevalence of HF antecedents increased and remained disproportionately higher in Aboriginal (versus non-Aboriginal) HF patients. Risk-adjusted 1-year mortality did not improve in Aboriginal patients over the period in contrast with non-Aboriginal patients. These findings highlight the need for better prevention and post-HF care in Aboriginal Australians.