A prognostic index model to predict the clinical outcomes for advanced pancreatic cancer patients following palliative chemotherapy

PURPOSE: To establish a prognostic index model for advanced pancreatic cancer patients receiving palliative chemotherapy based on clinical variables. METHODS: The clinical data of 118 patients with advanced pancreatic cancer who received palliative chemotherapy between January 2006 and August 2013 in our center were retrospectively analyzed. Prognostic factors for overall survival were identified using Cox proportional hazards model. A prognostic index model was established by these pretreatment factors to predict prognosis. Kaplan–Meier estimation and log-rank test were performed to compare the overall survival difference between low-risk and high-risk group of patients. RESULTS: Median overall survival time for all patients was 8.8 months [95 % confidence interval (CI) 7.0–10.6 months]. Multivariate analysis identified ECOG score = 2 (hazard ratio 2.03; 95 % CI 1.07–3.85; P = 0.030), CA19-9 levels of ≥1000 U/mL (hazard ratio 2.07; 95 % CI 1.09–3.92; P = 0.026), and CRP levels of ≥5 mg/L (hazard ratio 2.05; 95 % CI 1.06–3.96; P = 0.033) as independent poor prognostic factors for overall survival. For the three factors, ECOG score = 2, CA19-9 levels of ≥1000 U/mL, and CRP levels of ≥5 mg/L were allocated 1 point each. There were 84 (71.2 %) patients allocated to low-risk group with total score 0–1 point, and 34 (28.8 %) patients were categorized as high-risk group with total scores 2–3 points. The median overall survival for low-risk group and high-risk group was 9.9 months (95 % CI 6.8–13.0) and 5.3 months (95 % CI 4.1–6.5), respectively (hazard ratio 0.27; 95 % CI 0.14–0.52; P < 0.001). The estimated 1-year survival rates for low-risk group and high-risk group were 40.5 and 5.9 %, respectively (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: A novel prognostic index model based on three clinical parameters was established to predict the prognosis of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer receiving palliative chemotherapy.