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Time Evolution of Initial Errors in Lorenz's 05 Chaotic Model

Initial errors in weather prediction grow in time and, as they become larger, their growth slows down and then stops at an asymptotic value. Time of reaching this saturation point represents the limit of predictability. This paper studies the asymptotic values and time limits in a chaotic atmospheri...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Bednář, Hynek, Raidl, Aleš, Mikšovský, Jiří
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Hindawi Publishing Corporation 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4539497/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26346316
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/729080
Descripción
Sumario:Initial errors in weather prediction grow in time and, as they become larger, their growth slows down and then stops at an asymptotic value. Time of reaching this saturation point represents the limit of predictability. This paper studies the asymptotic values and time limits in a chaotic atmospheric model for five initial errors, using ensemble prediction method (model's data) as well as error approximation by quadratic and logarithmic hypothesis and their modifications. We show that modified hypotheses approximate the model's time limits better, but not without serious disadvantages. We demonstrate how hypotheses can be further improved to achieve better match of time limits with the model. We also show that quadratic hypothesis approximates the model's asymptotic value best and that, after improvement, it also approximates the model's time limits better for almost all initial errors and time lengths.