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Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of droughts and intensity of seasonal precipitation in many regions. Semiaquatic mammals should be vulnerable to this increased variability in precipitation, especially in human-modified landscapes where dispersal to suitable habitat or temporary...

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Autores principales: Ahlers, Adam A., Cotner, Lisa A., Wolff, Patrick J., Mitchell, Mark A., Heske, Edward J., Schooley, Robert L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4540445/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26284916
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135036
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author Ahlers, Adam A.
Cotner, Lisa A.
Wolff, Patrick J.
Mitchell, Mark A.
Heske, Edward J.
Schooley, Robert L.
author_facet Ahlers, Adam A.
Cotner, Lisa A.
Wolff, Patrick J.
Mitchell, Mark A.
Heske, Edward J.
Schooley, Robert L.
author_sort Ahlers, Adam A.
collection PubMed
description Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of droughts and intensity of seasonal precipitation in many regions. Semiaquatic mammals should be vulnerable to this increased variability in precipitation, especially in human-modified landscapes where dispersal to suitable habitat or temporary refugia may be limited. Using six years of presence-absence data (2007–2012) spanning years of record-breaking drought and flood conditions, we evaluated regional occupancy dynamics of American mink (Neovison vison) and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus) in a highly altered agroecosystem in Illinois, USA. We used noninvasive sign surveys and a multiseason occupancy modeling approach to estimate annual occupancy rates for both species and related these rates to summer precipitation. We also tracked radiomarked individuals to assess mortality risk for both species when moving in terrestrial areas. Annual model-averaged estimates of occupancy for mink and muskrat were correlated positively to summer precipitation. Mink and muskrats were widespread during a year (2008) with above-average precipitation. However, estimates of site occupancy declined substantially for mink (0.56) and especially muskrats (0.09) during the severe drought of 2012. Mink are generalist predators that probably use terrestrial habitat during droughts. However, mink had substantially greater risk of mortality away from streams. In comparison, muskrats are more restricted to aquatic habitats and likely suffered high mortality during the drought. Our patterns are striking, but a more mechanistic understanding is needed of how semiaquatic species in human-modified ecosystems will respond ecologically in situ to extreme weather events predicted by climate-change models.
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spelling pubmed-45404452015-08-24 Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals Ahlers, Adam A. Cotner, Lisa A. Wolff, Patrick J. Mitchell, Mark A. Heske, Edward J. Schooley, Robert L. PLoS One Research Article Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of droughts and intensity of seasonal precipitation in many regions. Semiaquatic mammals should be vulnerable to this increased variability in precipitation, especially in human-modified landscapes where dispersal to suitable habitat or temporary refugia may be limited. Using six years of presence-absence data (2007–2012) spanning years of record-breaking drought and flood conditions, we evaluated regional occupancy dynamics of American mink (Neovison vison) and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus) in a highly altered agroecosystem in Illinois, USA. We used noninvasive sign surveys and a multiseason occupancy modeling approach to estimate annual occupancy rates for both species and related these rates to summer precipitation. We also tracked radiomarked individuals to assess mortality risk for both species when moving in terrestrial areas. Annual model-averaged estimates of occupancy for mink and muskrat were correlated positively to summer precipitation. Mink and muskrats were widespread during a year (2008) with above-average precipitation. However, estimates of site occupancy declined substantially for mink (0.56) and especially muskrats (0.09) during the severe drought of 2012. Mink are generalist predators that probably use terrestrial habitat during droughts. However, mink had substantially greater risk of mortality away from streams. In comparison, muskrats are more restricted to aquatic habitats and likely suffered high mortality during the drought. Our patterns are striking, but a more mechanistic understanding is needed of how semiaquatic species in human-modified ecosystems will respond ecologically in situ to extreme weather events predicted by climate-change models. Public Library of Science 2015-08-18 /pmc/articles/PMC4540445/ /pubmed/26284916 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135036 Text en © 2015 Ahlers et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Ahlers, Adam A.
Cotner, Lisa A.
Wolff, Patrick J.
Mitchell, Mark A.
Heske, Edward J.
Schooley, Robert L.
Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals
title Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals
title_full Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals
title_fullStr Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals
title_full_unstemmed Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals
title_short Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals
title_sort summer precipitation predicts spatial distributions of semiaquatic mammals
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4540445/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26284916
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135036
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