Predicting reintubation, prolonged mechanical ventilation and death in post-coronary artery bypass graft surgery: a comparison between artificial neural networks and logistic regression models

INTRODUCTION: In coronary artery bypass (CABG) surgery, the common complications are the need for reintubation, prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) and death. Thus, a reliable model for the prognostic evaluation of those particular outcomes is a worthwhile pursuit. The existence of such a system would lead to better resource planning, cost reductions and an increased ability to guide preventive strategies. The aim of this study was to compare different methods – logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) – in accomplishing this goal. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Subjects undergoing CABG (n = 1315) were divided into training (n = 1053) and validation (n = 262) groups. The set of independent variables consisted of age, gender, weight, height, body mass index, diabetes, creatinine level, cardiopulmonary bypass, presence of preserved ventricular function, moderate and severe ventricular dysfunction and total number of grafts. The PMV was also an input for the prediction of death. The ability of ANN to discriminate outcomes was assessed using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and the results were compared using a multivariate LR. RESULTS: The ROC curve areas for LR and ANN models, respectively, were: for reintubation 0.62 (CI: 0.50–0.75) and 0.65 (CI: 0.53–0.77); for PMV 0.67 (CI: 0.57–0.78) and 0.72 (CI: 0.64–0.81); and for death 0.86 (CI: 0.79–0.93) and 0.85 (CI: 0.80–0.91). No differences were observed between models. CONCLUSIONS: The ANN has similar discriminating power in predicting reintubation, PMV and death outcomes. Thus, both models may be applicable as a predictor for these outcomes in subjects undergoing CABG.