Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO(2) Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data

This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China’s CO(2) emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995–2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO(2) emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO(2) emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO(2) emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO(2) emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO(2) emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO(2) emissions.