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An Approach to Improve the Performance of PM Forecasters

The particulate matter (PM) concentration has been one of the most relevant environmental concerns in recent decades due to its prejudicial effects on living beings and the earth’s atmosphere. High PM concentration affects the human health in several ways leading to short and long term diseases. Thu...

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Autores principales: de Mattos Neto, Paulo S. G., Cavalcanti, George D. C., Madeiro, Francisco, Ferreira, Tiago A. E.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4587586/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26414182
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138507
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author de Mattos Neto, Paulo S. G.
Cavalcanti, George D. C.
Madeiro, Francisco
Ferreira, Tiago A. E.
author_facet de Mattos Neto, Paulo S. G.
Cavalcanti, George D. C.
Madeiro, Francisco
Ferreira, Tiago A. E.
author_sort de Mattos Neto, Paulo S. G.
collection PubMed
description The particulate matter (PM) concentration has been one of the most relevant environmental concerns in recent decades due to its prejudicial effects on living beings and the earth’s atmosphere. High PM concentration affects the human health in several ways leading to short and long term diseases. Thus, forecasting systems have been developed to support decisions of the organizations and governments to alert the population. Forecasting systems based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been highlighted in the literature due to their performances. In general, three ANN-based approaches have been found for this task: ANN trained via learning algorithms, hybrid systems that combine search algorithms with ANNs, and hybrid systems that combine ANN with other forecasters. Independent of the approach, it is common to suppose that the residuals (error series), obtained from the difference between actual series and forecasting, have a white noise behavior. However, it is possible that this assumption is infringed due to: misspecification of the forecasting model, complexity of the time series or temporal patterns of the phenomenon not captured by the forecaster. This paper proposes an approach to improve the performance of PM forecasters from residuals modeling. The approach analyzes the remaining residuals recursively in search of temporal patterns. At each iteration, if there are temporal patterns in the residuals, the approach generates the forecasting of the residuals in order to improve the forecasting of the PM time series. The proposed approach can be used with either only one forecaster or by combining two or more forecasting models. In this study, the approach is used to improve the performance of a hybrid system (HS) composed by genetic algorithm (GA) and ANN from residuals modeling performed by two methods, namely, ANN and own hybrid system. Experiments were performed for PM(2.5) and PM(10) concentration series in Kallio and Vallila stations in Helsinki and evaluated from six metrics. Experimental results show that the proposed approach improves the accuracy of the forecasting method in terms of fitness function for all cases, when compared with the method without correction. The correction via HS obtained a superior performance, reaching the best results in terms of fitness function and in five out of six metrics. These results also were found when a sensitivity analysis was performed varying the proportions of the sets of training, validation and test. The proposed approach reached consistent results when compared with the forecasting method without correction, showing that it can be an interesting tool for correction of PM forecasters.
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spelling pubmed-45875862015-10-01 An Approach to Improve the Performance of PM Forecasters de Mattos Neto, Paulo S. G. Cavalcanti, George D. C. Madeiro, Francisco Ferreira, Tiago A. E. PLoS One Research Article The particulate matter (PM) concentration has been one of the most relevant environmental concerns in recent decades due to its prejudicial effects on living beings and the earth’s atmosphere. High PM concentration affects the human health in several ways leading to short and long term diseases. Thus, forecasting systems have been developed to support decisions of the organizations and governments to alert the population. Forecasting systems based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been highlighted in the literature due to their performances. In general, three ANN-based approaches have been found for this task: ANN trained via learning algorithms, hybrid systems that combine search algorithms with ANNs, and hybrid systems that combine ANN with other forecasters. Independent of the approach, it is common to suppose that the residuals (error series), obtained from the difference between actual series and forecasting, have a white noise behavior. However, it is possible that this assumption is infringed due to: misspecification of the forecasting model, complexity of the time series or temporal patterns of the phenomenon not captured by the forecaster. This paper proposes an approach to improve the performance of PM forecasters from residuals modeling. The approach analyzes the remaining residuals recursively in search of temporal patterns. At each iteration, if there are temporal patterns in the residuals, the approach generates the forecasting of the residuals in order to improve the forecasting of the PM time series. The proposed approach can be used with either only one forecaster or by combining two or more forecasting models. In this study, the approach is used to improve the performance of a hybrid system (HS) composed by genetic algorithm (GA) and ANN from residuals modeling performed by two methods, namely, ANN and own hybrid system. Experiments were performed for PM(2.5) and PM(10) concentration series in Kallio and Vallila stations in Helsinki and evaluated from six metrics. Experimental results show that the proposed approach improves the accuracy of the forecasting method in terms of fitness function for all cases, when compared with the method without correction. The correction via HS obtained a superior performance, reaching the best results in terms of fitness function and in five out of six metrics. These results also were found when a sensitivity analysis was performed varying the proportions of the sets of training, validation and test. The proposed approach reached consistent results when compared with the forecasting method without correction, showing that it can be an interesting tool for correction of PM forecasters. Public Library of Science 2015-09-28 /pmc/articles/PMC4587586/ /pubmed/26414182 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138507 Text en © 2015 de Mattos Neto et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
de Mattos Neto, Paulo S. G.
Cavalcanti, George D. C.
Madeiro, Francisco
Ferreira, Tiago A. E.
An Approach to Improve the Performance of PM Forecasters
title An Approach to Improve the Performance of PM Forecasters
title_full An Approach to Improve the Performance of PM Forecasters
title_fullStr An Approach to Improve the Performance of PM Forecasters
title_full_unstemmed An Approach to Improve the Performance of PM Forecasters
title_short An Approach to Improve the Performance of PM Forecasters
title_sort approach to improve the performance of pm forecasters
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4587586/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26414182
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138507
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