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The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe
We quantify the ‘permanent’ socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual—i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake—we u...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2015
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4591010/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26426998 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138714 |
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author | duPont IV, William Noy, Ilan Okuyama, Yoko Sawada, Yasuyuki |
author_facet | duPont IV, William Noy, Ilan Okuyama, Yoko Sawada, Yasuyuki |
author_sort | duPont IV, William |
collection | PubMed |
description | We quantify the ‘permanent’ socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual—i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake—we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4591010 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2015 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-45910102015-10-09 The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe duPont IV, William Noy, Ilan Okuyama, Yoko Sawada, Yasuyuki PLoS One Research Article We quantify the ‘permanent’ socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual—i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake—we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake. Public Library of Science 2015-10-01 /pmc/articles/PMC4591010/ /pubmed/26426998 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138714 Text en © 2015 duPont IV et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article duPont IV, William Noy, Ilan Okuyama, Yoko Sawada, Yasuyuki The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe |
title | The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe |
title_full | The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe |
title_fullStr | The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe |
title_full_unstemmed | The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe |
title_short | The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe |
title_sort | long-run socio-economic consequences of a large disaster: the 1995 earthquake in kobe |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4591010/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26426998 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138714 |
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