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The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe

We quantify the ‘permanent’ socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual—i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake—we u...

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Autores principales: duPont IV, William, Noy, Ilan, Okuyama, Yoko, Sawada, Yasuyuki
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4591010/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26426998
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138714
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author duPont IV, William
Noy, Ilan
Okuyama, Yoko
Sawada, Yasuyuki
author_facet duPont IV, William
Noy, Ilan
Okuyama, Yoko
Sawada, Yasuyuki
author_sort duPont IV, William
collection PubMed
description We quantify the ‘permanent’ socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual—i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake—we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake.
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spelling pubmed-45910102015-10-09 The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe duPont IV, William Noy, Ilan Okuyama, Yoko Sawada, Yasuyuki PLoS One Research Article We quantify the ‘permanent’ socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual—i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake—we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake. Public Library of Science 2015-10-01 /pmc/articles/PMC4591010/ /pubmed/26426998 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138714 Text en © 2015 duPont IV et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
duPont IV, William
Noy, Ilan
Okuyama, Yoko
Sawada, Yasuyuki
The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe
title The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe
title_full The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe
title_fullStr The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe
title_full_unstemmed The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe
title_short The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe
title_sort long-run socio-economic consequences of a large disaster: the 1995 earthquake in kobe
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4591010/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26426998
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138714
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