Empirical Estimation of R (0) for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta

We consider the problem of estimating the basic reproduction number R (0) from data on prevalence dynamics at the beginning of a disease outbreak. We derive discrete and continuous time models, some coefficients of which are to be fitted from data. We show that prevalence of the disease is sufficient to determine R (0). We apply this method to chronic wasting disease spread in Alberta determining a range of possible R (0) and their sensitivity to the probability of deer annual survival.