Empirical Estimation of R (0) for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta

We consider the problem of estimating the basic reproduction number R (0) from data on prevalence dynamics at the beginning of a disease outbreak. We derive discrete and continuous time models, some coefficients of which are to be fitted from data. We show that prevalence of the disease is sufficien...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Potapov, Alex, Merrill, Evelyn, Pybus, Margo, Lewis, Mark A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2015
Materias:
Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4599850/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26452231
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0140024
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author Potapov, Alex
Merrill, Evelyn
Pybus, Margo
Lewis, Mark A.
author_facet Potapov, Alex
Merrill, Evelyn
Pybus, Margo
Lewis, Mark A.
author_sort Potapov, Alex
collection PubMed
description We consider the problem of estimating the basic reproduction number R (0) from data on prevalence dynamics at the beginning of a disease outbreak. We derive discrete and continuous time models, some coefficients of which are to be fitted from data. We show that prevalence of the disease is sufficient to determine R (0). We apply this method to chronic wasting disease spread in Alberta determining a range of possible R (0) and their sensitivity to the probability of deer annual survival.
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spelling pubmed-45998502015-10-20 Empirical Estimation of R (0) for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta Potapov, Alex Merrill, Evelyn Pybus, Margo Lewis, Mark A. PLoS One Research Article We consider the problem of estimating the basic reproduction number R (0) from data on prevalence dynamics at the beginning of a disease outbreak. We derive discrete and continuous time models, some coefficients of which are to be fitted from data. We show that prevalence of the disease is sufficient to determine R (0). We apply this method to chronic wasting disease spread in Alberta determining a range of possible R (0) and their sensitivity to the probability of deer annual survival. Public Library of Science 2015-10-09 /pmc/articles/PMC4599850/ /pubmed/26452231 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0140024 Text en © 2015 Potapov et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Potapov, Alex
Merrill, Evelyn
Pybus, Margo
Lewis, Mark A.
Empirical Estimation of R (0) for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta
title Empirical Estimation of R (0) for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta
title_full Empirical Estimation of R (0) for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta
title_fullStr Empirical Estimation of R (0) for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta
title_full_unstemmed Empirical Estimation of R (0) for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta
title_short Empirical Estimation of R (0) for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta
title_sort empirical estimation of r (0) for unknown transmission functions: the case of chronic wasting disease in alberta
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4599850/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26452231
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0140024
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