Korean Version of a Model to Estimate Survival in Ambulatory Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma (K-MESIAH)

BACKGROUND AND AIM: A model to estimate survival in ambulatory hepatocellular carcinoma patients (MESIAH) is useful for estimating patient prognosis but needs improvement for Korean patients, most of whom have a hepatitis B virus. We aimed to modify the MESIAH for better prognostication through enhancing calibration for Korean patient population (K-MESIAH). METHODS: Utilizing a cohort of 1,969 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients from the National Cancer Center of Korea between 2004 and 2009, a survival prediction model was developed using the Cox proportional hazards model. The model’s performance was evaluated using C-statistical and χ(2)-statistical analyses. External validation was performed using an independent cohort of 328 patients from the Seoul National University Bundang Hospital. RESULTS: To develop the K-MESIAH, etiology was added to the original risk factors (age, Model for Endstage Liver Disease, albumin, size of the largest nodule, number of tumor nodules, vascular invasion, metastasis, and alpha fetoprotein) in the MESIAH. From the internal validation study, the C-statistics and χ(2)-statistics for one-, three-, and five-years of survival were 0.83 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.82−0.85), 49.07; 0.81 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.79−0.82), 28.95; and 0.80 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.79−0.81), 20.93, respectively. The K-MESIAH also showed a high prediction ability for the external validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: A survival prediction model for Korean HCC patients was developed and validated to have a high level of performance. This K-MESIAH may be more useful in clinical practice and personalized care in a hepatitis B virus endemic area.