The Prognostic Value of the Tumor Shrinkage Rate for Progression-Free Survival in Patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Receiving Gefitinib

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor (EGFR-TKI) therapy can be measured based on the rate of treatment response, based on the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) criteria or progression-free survival (PFS). However, there are some patients harboring sensitive EGFR mutations who responded poorly to EGFR-TKI therapy. In addition, there is variability in the PFS after EGFR-TKI treatment. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of the medical records of 85 patients with non-small cell lung cancer, who had achieved a stable disease or better response at the first evaluation of treatment response, after receiving a 2-month course of gefitinib. We calculated the tumor shrinkage rate (TSR) by measuring the longest and perpendicular diameter of the main mass on computed tomography before, and 2 months after, gefitinib therapy. RESULTS: There was a significant positive correlation between the TSR and PFS (R=0.373, p=0.010). In addition, a simple linear regression analysis showed that the TSR might be an indicator for the PFS (B±standard error, 244.54±66.79; p=0.001). On univariate analysis, the sex, histologic type, smoking history and the number of prior chemotherapy regimens, were significant prognostic factors. On multivariate regression analysis, both the TSR (β=0.257, p=0.029) and adenocarcinoma (β=0.323, p=0.005) were independent prognostic factors for PFS. CONCLUSION: Our results showed that the TSR might be an early prognostic indicator for PFS in patients receiving EGFR-TKI therapy.