Increases in both temperature means and extremes likely facilitate invasive herbivore outbreaks

Although increases in mean temperature (MT) and extreme high temperature (EHT) can greatly affect population dynamics of insects under global warming, how concurrent changes in both MT and EHT affect invasive species is largely unknown. We used four thermal regimes to simulate the increases in summer temperature and compared their effects on the life-history traits of three geographical populations (Chongqing, Wuhan and Shanghai) of an invasive insect, Corythucha ciliata, in China. The four thermal regimes were control (i.e., natural or ambient), an increase in MT (IMT), an increase in EHT, and a combination of IMT + EHT. We found that the three warming regimes significantly increased the developmental rate but did not affect the survival, sex ratio, longevity, or fecundity of C. ciliata. Consequently, the intrinsic rate of natural increase (r(m)) was enhanced and the number of days required for population doubling (t) was reduced by the warming regimes. The demographic parameters did not significantly differ among the three populations. These results indicate that population size of C. ciliata may be enhanced by increases in both temperature means and extremes. The increases in summer temperature associated with climate change, therefore, would likely facilitate population outbreaks of some thermophilic invasive insects.