Predictability of 1-h postload plasma glucose concentration: A 10-year retrospective cohort study

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: Elevated 1-h postload plasma glucose concentration (1hPG) during oral glucose tolerance test has been linked to an increased risk of type 2 diabetes and a poorer cardiometabolic risk profile. The present study analyzed the predictability and cut-off point of 1hPG in predicting type 2 diabetes in normal glucose regulation (NGR) subjects, and evaluated the long-term prognosis of NGR subjects with elevated 1hPG in glucose metabolism, kidney function, metabolic states and atherosclerosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 116 Han Chinese classified as NGR in 2002 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China, were investigated. Follow-up was carried out in 2012 to evaluate the progression of glucose metabolism, kidney function, metabolic syndrome and carotid atherosclerosis. RESULTS: The areas under receiver operating characteristic curves were higher for 1hPG than FPG or 2hPG (0.858 vs 0.806 vs 0.746). The cut-off value of 1hPG with the maximal sum of sensitivity and specificity in predicting type 2 diabetes in NGR subjects was 8.85 mmol/L. The accumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes in subjects with 1hPG ≥8.85 mmol/L was higher than those <8.85 mmol/L (46.2% vs 3.3%, P = 0.000; relative risk 13.846, 95% confidence interval 4.223–45.400). On follow up, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and abnormal carotid intima-media thickness in the subjects with 1hPG ≥8.85 mmol/L tended to be higher compared with those <8.85 mmol/L. CONCLUSIONS: 1hPG is a good predictor of type 2 diabetes in NGR subjects, and the best cut-off point is 8.85 mmol/L. Some tendency indicates that NGR subjects with 1hPG ≥8.85 mmol/L are more prone to metabolic syndrome and carotid atherosclerosis.