Detecting the emergence of novel, zoonotic viruses pathogenic to humans

RNA viruses, with their high potential for mutation and epidemic spread, are the most common class of pathogens found as new causes of human illness. Despite great advances made in diagnostic technology since the 1950s, the annual rate at which novel virulent viruses have been found has remained at 2–3. Most emerging viruses are zoonoses; they have jumped from mammal or bird hosts to humans. An analysis of virus discovery indicates that the small number of novel viruses discovered annually is an artifact of inadequate surveillance in tropical and subtropical countries, where even established endemic pathogens are often misdiagnosed. Many of the emerging viruses of the future are already infecting humans but remain to be uncovered by a strategy of disease surveillance in selected populations.