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Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Availability and Configuration for an Endemic Coastal Alpine Bird

North America’s coastal mountains are particularly vulnerable to climate change, yet harbour a number of endemic species. With little room “at the top” to track shifting climate envelopes, alpine species may be especially negatively affected by climate-induced habitat fragmentation. We ask how clima...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Jackson, Michelle M., Gergel, Sarah E., Martin, Kathy
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4631505/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26529306
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0142110
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author Jackson, Michelle M.
Gergel, Sarah E.
Martin, Kathy
author_facet Jackson, Michelle M.
Gergel, Sarah E.
Martin, Kathy
author_sort Jackson, Michelle M.
collection PubMed
description North America’s coastal mountains are particularly vulnerable to climate change, yet harbour a number of endemic species. With little room “at the top” to track shifting climate envelopes, alpine species may be especially negatively affected by climate-induced habitat fragmentation. We ask how climate change will affect the total amount, mean patch size, and number of patches of suitable habitat for Vancouver Island White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura saxatilis; VIWTP), a threatened, endemic alpine bird. Using a Random Forest model and a unique dataset consisting of citizen science observations combined with field surveys, we predict the distribution and configuration of potential suitable summer habitat for VIWTP under baseline and future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) climates using three general circulation models and two greenhouse gas scenarios. VIWTP summer habitat is predicted to decline by an average of 25%, 44%, and 56% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, under the low greenhouse gas scenario and 27%, 59%, and 74% under the high scenario. Habitat patches are predicted to become fragmented, with a 52–79% reduction in mean patch size. The average elevation of suitable habitat patches is expected to increase, reflecting a loss of patches at lower elevations. Thus ptarmigan are in danger of being “squeezed off the mountain”, as their remaining suitable habitat will be increasingly confined to mountaintops in the center of the island. The extent to which ptarmigan will be able to persist in increasingly fragmented habitat is unclear. Much will depend on their ability to move throughout a more heterogeneous landscape, utilize smaller breeding areas, and survive increasingly variable climate extremes. Our results emphasize the importance of continued monitoring and protection for high elevation specialist species, and suggest that White-tailed Ptarmigan should be considered an indicator species for alpine ecosystems in the face of climate change.
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spelling pubmed-46315052015-11-13 Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Availability and Configuration for an Endemic Coastal Alpine Bird Jackson, Michelle M. Gergel, Sarah E. Martin, Kathy PLoS One Research Article North America’s coastal mountains are particularly vulnerable to climate change, yet harbour a number of endemic species. With little room “at the top” to track shifting climate envelopes, alpine species may be especially negatively affected by climate-induced habitat fragmentation. We ask how climate change will affect the total amount, mean patch size, and number of patches of suitable habitat for Vancouver Island White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura saxatilis; VIWTP), a threatened, endemic alpine bird. Using a Random Forest model and a unique dataset consisting of citizen science observations combined with field surveys, we predict the distribution and configuration of potential suitable summer habitat for VIWTP under baseline and future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) climates using three general circulation models and two greenhouse gas scenarios. VIWTP summer habitat is predicted to decline by an average of 25%, 44%, and 56% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, under the low greenhouse gas scenario and 27%, 59%, and 74% under the high scenario. Habitat patches are predicted to become fragmented, with a 52–79% reduction in mean patch size. The average elevation of suitable habitat patches is expected to increase, reflecting a loss of patches at lower elevations. Thus ptarmigan are in danger of being “squeezed off the mountain”, as their remaining suitable habitat will be increasingly confined to mountaintops in the center of the island. The extent to which ptarmigan will be able to persist in increasingly fragmented habitat is unclear. Much will depend on their ability to move throughout a more heterogeneous landscape, utilize smaller breeding areas, and survive increasingly variable climate extremes. Our results emphasize the importance of continued monitoring and protection for high elevation specialist species, and suggest that White-tailed Ptarmigan should be considered an indicator species for alpine ecosystems in the face of climate change. Public Library of Science 2015-11-03 /pmc/articles/PMC4631505/ /pubmed/26529306 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0142110 Text en © 2015 Jackson et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Jackson, Michelle M.
Gergel, Sarah E.
Martin, Kathy
Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Availability and Configuration for an Endemic Coastal Alpine Bird
title Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Availability and Configuration for an Endemic Coastal Alpine Bird
title_full Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Availability and Configuration for an Endemic Coastal Alpine Bird
title_fullStr Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Availability and Configuration for an Endemic Coastal Alpine Bird
title_full_unstemmed Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Availability and Configuration for an Endemic Coastal Alpine Bird
title_short Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Availability and Configuration for an Endemic Coastal Alpine Bird
title_sort effects of climate change on habitat availability and configuration for an endemic coastal alpine bird
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4631505/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26529306
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0142110
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