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Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21(st) Century
Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression m...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2015
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4633131/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26536124 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0139201 |
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author | Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Rolinski, Susanne Biewald, Anne Weindl, Isabelle Popp, Alexander Lotze-Campen, Hermann |
author_facet | Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Rolinski, Susanne Biewald, Anne Weindl, Isabelle Popp, Alexander Lotze-Campen, Hermann |
author_sort | Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon |
collection | PubMed |
description | Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4633131 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2015 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-46331312015-11-13 Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21(st) Century Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Rolinski, Susanne Biewald, Anne Weindl, Isabelle Popp, Alexander Lotze-Campen, Hermann PLoS One Research Article Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. Public Library of Science 2015-11-04 /pmc/articles/PMC4633131/ /pubmed/26536124 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0139201 Text en © 2015 Bodirsky et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Rolinski, Susanne Biewald, Anne Weindl, Isabelle Popp, Alexander Lotze-Campen, Hermann Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21(st) Century |
title | Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21(st) Century |
title_full | Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21(st) Century |
title_fullStr | Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21(st) Century |
title_full_unstemmed | Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21(st) Century |
title_short | Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21(st) Century |
title_sort | global food demand scenarios for the 21(st) century |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4633131/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26536124 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0139201 |
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