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Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis

BACKGROUND: Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high‐income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower‐ and midd...

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Autores principales: Smith, Richard D., Keogh‐Brown, Marcus R.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4634285/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23822177
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12137
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author Smith, Richard D.
Keogh‐Brown, Marcus R.
author_facet Smith, Richard D.
Keogh‐Brown, Marcus R.
author_sort Smith, Richard D.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high‐income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower‐ and middle‐income countries. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. METHODS: A single‐country whole‐economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. RESULTS: Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour‐intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. CONCLUSIONS: The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low‐income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
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spelling pubmed-46342852015-12-01 Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis Smith, Richard D. Keogh‐Brown, Marcus R. Influenza Other Respir Viruses Part 5 BACKGROUND: Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high‐income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower‐ and middle‐income countries. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. METHODS: A single‐country whole‐economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. RESULTS: Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour‐intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. CONCLUSIONS: The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low‐income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2013-07-04 2013-11 /pmc/articles/PMC4634285/ /pubmed/23822177 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12137 Text en © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
spellingShingle Part 5
Smith, Richard D.
Keogh‐Brown, Marcus R.
Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis
title Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis
title_full Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis
title_fullStr Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis
title_full_unstemmed Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis
title_short Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis
title_sort macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in thailand, south africa and uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis
topic Part 5
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4634285/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23822177
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12137
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