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Model answers or trivial pursuits? The role of mathematical models in influenza pandemic preparedness planning

The panzootic of H5N1 influenza in birds has raised concerns that the virus will mutate to spread more readily in people, leading to a human pandemic. Mathematical models have been used to interpret past pandemics and outbreaks, and to thus model possible future pandemic scenarios and interventions....

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: McVernon, J, McCaw, CT, Mathews, JD
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2007
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4634556/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19432634
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2007.00008.x
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author McVernon, J
McCaw, CT
Mathews, JD
author_facet McVernon, J
McCaw, CT
Mathews, JD
author_sort McVernon, J
collection PubMed
description The panzootic of H5N1 influenza in birds has raised concerns that the virus will mutate to spread more readily in people, leading to a human pandemic. Mathematical models have been used to interpret past pandemics and outbreaks, and to thus model possible future pandemic scenarios and interventions. We review historical influenza outbreak and transmission data, and discuss the way in which modellers have used such sources to inform model structure and assumptions. We suggest that urban attack rates in the 1918–1919 pandemic were constrained by prior immunity, that R (0) for influenza is higher than often assumed, and that control of any future pandemic could be difficult in the absence of significant prior immunity. In future, modelling assumptions, parameter estimates and conclusions should be tested against as many relevant data sets as possible. To this end, we encourage researchers to access FluWeb, an on‐line influenza database of historical pandemics and outbreaks.
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spelling pubmed-46345562015-11-24 Model answers or trivial pursuits? The role of mathematical models in influenza pandemic preparedness planning McVernon, J McCaw, CT Mathews, JD Influenza Other Respir Viruses Reviews The panzootic of H5N1 influenza in birds has raised concerns that the virus will mutate to spread more readily in people, leading to a human pandemic. Mathematical models have been used to interpret past pandemics and outbreaks, and to thus model possible future pandemic scenarios and interventions. We review historical influenza outbreak and transmission data, and discuss the way in which modellers have used such sources to inform model structure and assumptions. We suggest that urban attack rates in the 1918–1919 pandemic were constrained by prior immunity, that R (0) for influenza is higher than often assumed, and that control of any future pandemic could be difficult in the absence of significant prior immunity. In future, modelling assumptions, parameter estimates and conclusions should be tested against as many relevant data sets as possible. To this end, we encourage researchers to access FluWeb, an on‐line influenza database of historical pandemics and outbreaks. Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2007-05-25 2007-03 /pmc/articles/PMC4634556/ /pubmed/19432634 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2007.00008.x Text en
spellingShingle Reviews
McVernon, J
McCaw, CT
Mathews, JD
Model answers or trivial pursuits? The role of mathematical models in influenza pandemic preparedness planning
title Model answers or trivial pursuits? The role of mathematical models in influenza pandemic preparedness planning
title_full Model answers or trivial pursuits? The role of mathematical models in influenza pandemic preparedness planning
title_fullStr Model answers or trivial pursuits? The role of mathematical models in influenza pandemic preparedness planning
title_full_unstemmed Model answers or trivial pursuits? The role of mathematical models in influenza pandemic preparedness planning
title_short Model answers or trivial pursuits? The role of mathematical models in influenza pandemic preparedness planning
title_sort model answers or trivial pursuits? the role of mathematical models in influenza pandemic preparedness planning
topic Reviews
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4634556/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19432634
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2007.00008.x
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