Factors Influencing Graft Outcomes Following Diagnosis of Polyomavirus –Associated Nephropathy after Renal Transplantation

BACKGROUND: Polyomavirus associated nephropathy (PVAN) is a significant cause of early allograft loss and the course is difficult to predict. The aim of this study is to identify factors influencing outcome for PVAN. METHODS: Between 2006 and 2014, we diagnosed PVAN in 48 (7.8%) of 615 patients monitored for BK virus every 1–4 weeks after modification of maintenance immunosuppression. Logistic or Cox regression analysis were performed to determine which risk factors independently affected clinical outcome and graft loss respectively. RESULTS: After 32.1±26.4 months follow-up, the frequencies of any graft functional decline at 1 year post-diagnosis, graft loss and any graft functional decline at the last available follow-up were 27.1% (13/48), 25.0% (12/48), and 33.3% (16/48), respectively. The 1, 3, 5 year graft survival rates were 100%, 80.5% and 69.1%, respectively. The mean level of serum creatinine at 1 year post-diagnosis and long-term graft survival rates were the worst in class C (p<0.05). Thirty-eight of 46 (82.6%) BKV DNAuria patients reduced viral load by 90% with a median time of 2.75 months (range, 0.25–34.0 months) and showed better graft survival rates than the 8 patients (17.4%) without viral load reduction (p<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that extensive interstitial inflammation (OR 20.2, p = 0.042) and delayed fall in urinary viral load (>2.75 months for >90% decrease) in urine (OR 16.7, p = 0.055) correlated with worse creatinine at 1 year post-diagnosis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that extensive interstitial inflammation (HR 46988, p = 0.032) at diagnosis, and high PVAN stage (HR 162.2, p = 0.021) were associated with worse long-term graft survival rates. CONCLUSIONS: The extent of interstitial inflammation influences short and long-term graft outcomes in patients with PVAN. The degree of PVAN, rate of reduction in viral load, and viral clearance also can be used as prognostic markers in PVAN.