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Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures

Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the sea...

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Autores principales: Mei, Wei, Xie, Shang-Ping, Primeau, François, McWilliams, James C., Pasquero, Claudia
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4640637/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26601179
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500014
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author Mei, Wei
Xie, Shang-Ping
Primeau, François
McWilliams, James C.
Pasquero, Claudia
author_facet Mei, Wei
Xie, Shang-Ping
Primeau, François
McWilliams, James C.
Pasquero, Claudia
author_sort Mei, Wei
collection PubMed
description Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100.
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spelling pubmed-46406372015-11-23 Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures Mei, Wei Xie, Shang-Ping Primeau, François McWilliams, James C. Pasquero, Claudia Sci Adv Research Articles Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2015-05-29 /pmc/articles/PMC4640637/ /pubmed/26601179 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500014 Text en Copyright © 2015, The Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Mei, Wei
Xie, Shang-Ping
Primeau, François
McWilliams, James C.
Pasquero, Claudia
Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures
title Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures
title_full Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures
title_fullStr Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures
title_full_unstemmed Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures
title_short Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures
title_sort northwestern pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4640637/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26601179
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500014
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