Clinico-biochemical factors to early predict biliary etiology of acute pancreatitis: age, female gender, and ALT

Background/ Aims: Despite the existence of an easy tool to diagnose biliary tract disease as an etiology for acute pancreatitis (AP), the sensitivity of abdominal ultrasound is around 80%, which can be even lower in certain conditions. Methodology: We have retrospectively reviewed data of 146 patients admitted for acute pancreatitis between 1999 and 2013. Bivariate analysis for clinical and biochemical variables was performed with respect to etiology of AP (biliary versus non-biliary). Multivariate analysis was performed by using binary logistic regression. Results: There were 87 males (59.6%) and 59 females (40.4%), with a median age of 51. The etiology of acute pancreatitis was biliary in 71 patients (48.6%). Bivariate analysis found the following as significant association (p=0.001) with biliary pancreatitis: older age, female gender, and elevated AST, ALT. A binary logistic regression analysis identified as predictor factors for biliary etiology of acute pancreatitis: age OR = 1.031 (95% CI 1.004 - 1.059, p = 0.024), sex (female) OR = 2.34 (95% CI 1.022 - 5.359, p = 0.044) and ALT OR = 1.004 (95% CI 1.001 - 1.007, p =0.004). The two clinical scores included the three variables (A.S.ALT scores) in categorical format were generated and then checked with the ROC curves (areas under curve are 0.768 and 0.778). Conclusions: Age, female gender, and elevated ALT can help identifying cases with biliary etiology of acute pancreatitis.