Cargando…
On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming
Recent public debate and the scientific literature have frequently cited a “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. Yet, multiple sources of evidence show that climate change continues unabated, raising questions about the status of the “hiatus”. To examine whether the notion of a “hiatus” is justifie...
Autores principales: | , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group
2015
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4657026/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26597713 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep16784 |
_version_ | 1782402320023158784 |
---|---|
author | Lewandowsky, Stephan Risbey, James S. Oreskes, Naomi |
author_facet | Lewandowsky, Stephan Risbey, James S. Oreskes, Naomi |
author_sort | Lewandowsky, Stephan |
collection | PubMed |
description | Recent public debate and the scientific literature have frequently cited a “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. Yet, multiple sources of evidence show that climate change continues unabated, raising questions about the status of the “hiatus”. To examine whether the notion of a “hiatus” is justified by the available data, we first document that there are multiple definitions of the “hiatus” in the literature, with its presumed onset spanning a decade. For each of these definitions we compare the associated temperature trend against trends of equivalent length in the entire record of modern global warming. The analysis shows that the “hiatus” trends are encompassed within the overall distribution of observed trends. We next assess the magnitude and significance of all possible trends up to 25 years duration looking backwards from each year over the past 30 years. At every year during the past 30 years, the immediately preceding warming trend was always significant when 17 years (or more) were included in the calculation, alleged “hiatus” periods notwithstanding. If current definitions of the “pause” used in the literature are applied to the historical record, then the climate system “paused” for more than 1/3 of the period during which temperatures rose 0.6 K. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4657026 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2015 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-46570262015-11-30 On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming Lewandowsky, Stephan Risbey, James S. Oreskes, Naomi Sci Rep Article Recent public debate and the scientific literature have frequently cited a “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. Yet, multiple sources of evidence show that climate change continues unabated, raising questions about the status of the “hiatus”. To examine whether the notion of a “hiatus” is justified by the available data, we first document that there are multiple definitions of the “hiatus” in the literature, with its presumed onset spanning a decade. For each of these definitions we compare the associated temperature trend against trends of equivalent length in the entire record of modern global warming. The analysis shows that the “hiatus” trends are encompassed within the overall distribution of observed trends. We next assess the magnitude and significance of all possible trends up to 25 years duration looking backwards from each year over the past 30 years. At every year during the past 30 years, the immediately preceding warming trend was always significant when 17 years (or more) were included in the calculation, alleged “hiatus” periods notwithstanding. If current definitions of the “pause” used in the literature are applied to the historical record, then the climate system “paused” for more than 1/3 of the period during which temperatures rose 0.6 K. Nature Publishing Group 2015-11-24 /pmc/articles/PMC4657026/ /pubmed/26597713 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep16784 Text en Copyright © 2015, Macmillan Publishers Limited http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
spellingShingle | Article Lewandowsky, Stephan Risbey, James S. Oreskes, Naomi On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming |
title | On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming |
title_full | On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming |
title_fullStr | On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming |
title_full_unstemmed | On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming |
title_short | On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming |
title_sort | on the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4657026/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26597713 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep16784 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT lewandowskystephan onthedefinitionandidentifiabilityoftheallegedhiatusinglobalwarming AT risbeyjamess onthedefinitionandidentifiabilityoftheallegedhiatusinglobalwarming AT oreskesnaomi onthedefinitionandidentifiabilityoftheallegedhiatusinglobalwarming |