Cargando…
The Impact of Human Mobility on HIV Transmission in Kenya
Disease spreads as a result of people moving and coming in contact with each other. Thus the mobility patterns of individuals are crucial in understanding disease dynamics. Here we study the impact of human mobility on HIV transmission in different parts of Kenya. We build an SIR metapopulation mode...
Autores principales: | , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2015
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4657931/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26599277 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0142805 |
_version_ | 1782402439382564864 |
---|---|
author | Isdory, Augustino Mureithi, Eunice W. Sumpter, David J. T. |
author_facet | Isdory, Augustino Mureithi, Eunice W. Sumpter, David J. T. |
author_sort | Isdory, Augustino |
collection | PubMed |
description | Disease spreads as a result of people moving and coming in contact with each other. Thus the mobility patterns of individuals are crucial in understanding disease dynamics. Here we study the impact of human mobility on HIV transmission in different parts of Kenya. We build an SIR metapopulation model that incorporates the different regions within the country. We parameterise the model using census data, HIV data and mobile phone data adopted to track human mobility. We found that movement between different regions appears to have a relatively small overall effect on the total increase in HIV cases in Kenya. However, the most important consequence of movement patterns was transmission of the disease from high infection to low prevalence areas. Mobility slightly increases HIV incidence rates in regions with initially low HIV prevalences and slightly decreases incidences in regions with initially high HIV prevalence. We discuss how regional HIV models could be used in public-health planning. This paper is a first attempt to model spread of HIV using mobile phone data, and we also discuss limitations to the approach. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4657931 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2015 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-46579312015-12-02 The Impact of Human Mobility on HIV Transmission in Kenya Isdory, Augustino Mureithi, Eunice W. Sumpter, David J. T. PLoS One Research Article Disease spreads as a result of people moving and coming in contact with each other. Thus the mobility patterns of individuals are crucial in understanding disease dynamics. Here we study the impact of human mobility on HIV transmission in different parts of Kenya. We build an SIR metapopulation model that incorporates the different regions within the country. We parameterise the model using census data, HIV data and mobile phone data adopted to track human mobility. We found that movement between different regions appears to have a relatively small overall effect on the total increase in HIV cases in Kenya. However, the most important consequence of movement patterns was transmission of the disease from high infection to low prevalence areas. Mobility slightly increases HIV incidence rates in regions with initially low HIV prevalences and slightly decreases incidences in regions with initially high HIV prevalence. We discuss how regional HIV models could be used in public-health planning. This paper is a first attempt to model spread of HIV using mobile phone data, and we also discuss limitations to the approach. Public Library of Science 2015-11-24 /pmc/articles/PMC4657931/ /pubmed/26599277 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0142805 Text en © 2015 Isdory et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Isdory, Augustino Mureithi, Eunice W. Sumpter, David J. T. The Impact of Human Mobility on HIV Transmission in Kenya |
title | The Impact of Human Mobility on HIV Transmission in Kenya |
title_full | The Impact of Human Mobility on HIV Transmission in Kenya |
title_fullStr | The Impact of Human Mobility on HIV Transmission in Kenya |
title_full_unstemmed | The Impact of Human Mobility on HIV Transmission in Kenya |
title_short | The Impact of Human Mobility on HIV Transmission in Kenya |
title_sort | impact of human mobility on hiv transmission in kenya |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4657931/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26599277 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0142805 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT isdoryaugustino theimpactofhumanmobilityonhivtransmissioninkenya AT mureithieunicew theimpactofhumanmobilityonhivtransmissioninkenya AT sumpterdavidjt theimpactofhumanmobilityonhivtransmissioninkenya AT isdoryaugustino impactofhumanmobilityonhivtransmissioninkenya AT mureithieunicew impactofhumanmobilityonhivtransmissioninkenya AT sumpterdavidjt impactofhumanmobilityonhivtransmissioninkenya |