The incidence rate over 10 years of naturally occurring, cancer related mutations in the basal core promoter of hepatitis B virus

Cross-sectional analyses showed that the prevalence of basal core promoter (BCP) double mutations (nt 1762T, 1764A) of hepatitis B virus (HBV) gradually increases with age. We aimed to determine the incidence rate of the mutations over 10 years. Study subjects were selected from the Long An cohort established in 2004, including 59 with HBV with single mutations at nt 1762 or 1764 in the BCP and 342 with wild type BCP sequences at baseline. Their serum samples for analysis were obtained at the 3rd and 10th annual visits, respectively. The results showed that the annual incidence rate of BCP double mutations is 3.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4–6.2) and tends to decrease with age. The peak incidence is in the 30–34 years age-group. The incidence rate in HBeAg positive individuals (5.5%) is significantly higher than in those without HBeAg (3.4%) (P < 0.05). The incidence rate is significantly higher in genotype C (4.8%) than in genotype B (2.8%) or I (3.1%). The incidence rate of the mutations (6.8%) developing from a single mutation at nt 1762 or 1764 is significantly higher than that (3.8%) from the wild type sequence (P < 0.005). The difference in incidence of single mutations between nt 1762 (0.7%) and 1764 (0.03%) is significant (P < 0.05). In conclusion, the incidence rate of BCP double mutations tends to decrease with age after the age of 35 years. Viruses with a single mutation at nt 1762 or 1764 are more prone to develop double mutations. Nt 1762 is the more common site of the first mutation.