The Biggest Loser Thinks Long-Term: Recency as a Predictor of Success in Weight Management

Only a minority of participants in behavioral weight management lose weight significantly. The ability to predict who is likely to benefit from weight management can improve the efficiency of obesity treatment. Identifying predictors of weight loss can also reveal potential ways to improve existing treatments. We propose a neuro-psychological model that is focused on recency: the reliance on recent information at the expense of time-distant information. Forty-four weight-management patients completed a decision-making task and their recency level was estimated by a mathematical model. Impulsivity and risk-taking were also measured for comparison. Weight loss was measured in the end of the 16-week intervention. Consistent with our hypothesis, successful dieters (n = 12) had lower recency scores than unsuccessful ones (n = 32; p = 0.006). Successful and unsuccessful dieters were similar in their demographics, intelligence, risk taking, impulsivity, and delay of gratification. We conclude that dieters who process time-distant information in their decision making are more likely to lose weight than those who are high in recency. We argue that having low recency facilitates future-oriented thinking, and thereby contributes to behavior change treatment adherence. Our findings underline the importance of choosing the right treatment for every individual, and outline a way to improve weight-management processes for more patients.