Predicting emergency coronary artery bypass graft following PCI: application of a computational model to refer patients to hospitals with and without onsite surgical backup

BACKGROUND: Clinical tools to stratify patients for emergency coronary artery bypass graft (ECABG) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) create the opportunity to selectively assign patients undergoing procedures to hospitals with and without onsite surgical facilities for dealing with potential complications while balancing load across providers. The goal of our study was to investigate the feasibility of a computational model directly optimised for cohort-level performance to predict ECABG in PCI patients for this application. METHODS: Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Cardiovascular Consortium registry data with 69 pre-procedural and angiographic risk variables from 68 022 PCI procedures in 2004–2007 were used to develop a support vector machine (SVM) model for ECABG. The SVM model was optimised for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) at the level of the training cohort and validated on 42 310 PCI procedures performed in 2008–2009. RESULTS: There were 87 cases of ECABG (0.21%) in the validation cohort. The SVM model achieved an AUROC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.86). Patients in the predicted top decile were at a significantly increased risk relative to the remaining patients (OR 9.74, 95% CI 6.39 to 14.85, p<0.001) for ECABG. The SVM model optimised for the AUROC on the training cohort significantly improved discrimination, net reclassification and calibration over logistic regression and traditional SVM classification optimised for univariate performance. CONCLUSIONS: Computational risk stratification directly optimising cohort-level performance holds the potential of high levels of discrimination for ECABG following PCI. This approach has value in selectively referring PCI patients to hospitals with and without onsite surgery.