Neck Circumference and Incidence of Diabetes Mellitus over 10 Years in the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES)

Neck circumference, a proxy for upper-body fat, may be a unique fat depot that indicates metabolic risk beyond whole body fat. We investigated whether neck circumference is associated with development of diabetes mellitus (DM) in a subset of data with Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (n = 3521, age range = 42–71 years). Nondiabetic subjects at the baseline were categorized into 4 groups (Q1–Q4) according to their neck circumference. Parameters related with β-cell function and insulin resistance including Epworth sleepiness scale and snoring habit were examined. The development of DM was confirmed biannually based on a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test. Over the 10 years, 2623 (74.5%) among 3521 subjects were followed-up. Among them, 632 (24.1%) developed DM. The incidence of DM increased from 17.6% in Q1 to 18.2% in Q2, to 25.4% in Q3, and to 36.0% in Q4 (P < 0.001). After adjusting for most risk factors related with DM, the relative risks of DM development were 0.989 (95% confidence interval, 0.638–1.578), 1.660 (1.025–2.687), and 1.746 (1.037–2.942) in men and 0.939 (0.540–1.769), 1.518 (0.808–2.853), and 2.077 (1.068–4.038) in women in Q2, Q3, and Q4, respectively when compared to Q1. This finding indicates negative impact from large neck circumference in the development of DM.