Modeling the Offensive-Defensive Interaction and Resulting Outcomes in Basketball

PURPOSE: We analyzed the interaction between offensive (i.e. space creation dynamics -SCDs) and defensive (i.e. space protection dynamics—SPDs) actions in six play outcomes (free shot, contested shot, new SCD, reset, foul, and turnover) in Spanish professional basketball games. METHOD: Data consisted of 1548 SCD-SPD-outcome triples obtained from six play-off games. We used Bayesian methods to compute marginal probabilities of six outcomes following five different SCDs. We also computed probabilities of the six outcomes following the 16 most frequent SCD-SPD combinations. RESULTS: The pick action (e.g. pick and roll, pop and pop) was the most prevalent SCD (33%). However, this SCD did not produce the highest probability of a free shot (0.235). The highest probability of a free shot followed the SCD without ball (0.409). The pick was performed not only to attempt scoring but also to initiate offenses, as it produced the highest probability leading to a new SCD (0.403). Additionally, the SPD performed influenced the outcome of the SCD. This reinforces the notion that the opposition (offensive-defensive interaction) should be considered. To the best of our knowledge, in team sports, this is the first study to successfully model the tactical features involved in offense-defense interactions. Our analyses revealed that the high frequency of occurrence of some SCDs may be justified not only by an associated high probability of free shots but also by the possibility of progressively create more space in the defense (i.e. a new SCD as outcome). In the second case, it evidences offensive strategic features of progressive disruption of the defensive system through the concatenation of subsequent offensive actions.