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Predicting all‐cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study

Using longitudinal data from a cohort of 1349 participants in the Framingham Heart Study, we show that as early as 28–38 years of age, almost 10% of variation in future lifespan can be predicted from simple clinical parameters. Specifically, we found diastolic and systolic blood pressure, blood gluc...

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Autores principales: Zhang, William B., Pincus, Zachary
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4717277/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26446764
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/acel.12408
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author Zhang, William B.
Pincus, Zachary
author_facet Zhang, William B.
Pincus, Zachary
author_sort Zhang, William B.
collection PubMed
description Using longitudinal data from a cohort of 1349 participants in the Framingham Heart Study, we show that as early as 28–38 years of age, almost 10% of variation in future lifespan can be predicted from simple clinical parameters. Specifically, we found diastolic and systolic blood pressure, blood glucose, weight, and body mass index (BMI) to be relevant to lifespan. These and similar parameters have been well‐characterized as risk factors in the relatively narrow context of cardiovascular disease and mortality in middle to old age. In contrast, we demonstrate here that such measures can be used to predict all‐cause mortality from mid‐adulthood onward. Further, we find that different clinical measurements are predictive of lifespan in different age regimes. Specifically, blood pressure and BMI are predictive of all‐cause mortality from ages 35 to 60, while blood glucose is predictive from ages 57 to 73. Moreover, we find that several of these parameters are best considered as measures of a rate of ‘damage accrual’, such that total historical exposure, rather than current measurement values, is the most relevant risk factor (as with pack‐years of cigarette smoking). In short, we show that simple physiological measurements have broader lifespan‐predictive value than indicated by previous work and that incorporating information from multiple time points can significantly increase that predictive capacity. In general, our results apply equally to both men and women, although some differences exist.
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spelling pubmed-47172772016-01-31 Predicting all‐cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study Zhang, William B. Pincus, Zachary Aging Cell Original Articles Using longitudinal data from a cohort of 1349 participants in the Framingham Heart Study, we show that as early as 28–38 years of age, almost 10% of variation in future lifespan can be predicted from simple clinical parameters. Specifically, we found diastolic and systolic blood pressure, blood glucose, weight, and body mass index (BMI) to be relevant to lifespan. These and similar parameters have been well‐characterized as risk factors in the relatively narrow context of cardiovascular disease and mortality in middle to old age. In contrast, we demonstrate here that such measures can be used to predict all‐cause mortality from mid‐adulthood onward. Further, we find that different clinical measurements are predictive of lifespan in different age regimes. Specifically, blood pressure and BMI are predictive of all‐cause mortality from ages 35 to 60, while blood glucose is predictive from ages 57 to 73. Moreover, we find that several of these parameters are best considered as measures of a rate of ‘damage accrual’, such that total historical exposure, rather than current measurement values, is the most relevant risk factor (as with pack‐years of cigarette smoking). In short, we show that simple physiological measurements have broader lifespan‐predictive value than indicated by previous work and that incorporating information from multiple time points can significantly increase that predictive capacity. In general, our results apply equally to both men and women, although some differences exist. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2015-10-08 2016-02 /pmc/articles/PMC4717277/ /pubmed/26446764 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/acel.12408 Text en © 2015 The Authors. Aging Cell published by the Anatomical Society and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Original Articles
Zhang, William B.
Pincus, Zachary
Predicting all‐cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study
title Predicting all‐cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study
title_full Predicting all‐cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study
title_fullStr Predicting all‐cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study
title_full_unstemmed Predicting all‐cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study
title_short Predicting all‐cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study
title_sort predicting all‐cause mortality from basic physiology in the framingham heart study
topic Original Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4717277/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26446764
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/acel.12408
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