Cargando…
Simulation of Spread of African Swine Fever, Including the Effects of Residues from Dead Animals
To study the spread of African swine fever (ASF) within a pig unit and the impact of unit size on ASF spread, a simulation model was created. In the model, an animal can be in one of the following stages: susceptible, latent, subclinical, clinical, or recovered. Animals can be infectious during the...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2016
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4735426/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26870740 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2016.00006 |
_version_ | 1782413074837274624 |
---|---|
author | Halasa, Tariq Boklund, Anette Bøtner, Anette Toft, Nils Thulke, Hans-Hermann |
author_facet | Halasa, Tariq Boklund, Anette Bøtner, Anette Toft, Nils Thulke, Hans-Hermann |
author_sort | Halasa, Tariq |
collection | PubMed |
description | To study the spread of African swine fever (ASF) within a pig unit and the impact of unit size on ASF spread, a simulation model was created. In the model, an animal can be in one of the following stages: susceptible, latent, subclinical, clinical, or recovered. Animals can be infectious during the subclinical stage and are fully infectious during the clinical stage. ASF virus (ASFV) infection through residues of dead animals in the slurries was also modeled in an exponentially fading-out pattern. Low and high transmission rates for ASFV were tested in the model. Robustness analysis was carried out in order to study the impact of uncertain parameters on model predictions. The results showed that the disease may fade out within the pig unit without a major outbreak. Furthermore, they showed that spread of ASFV is dependent on the infectiousness of subclinical animals and the residues of dead animals, the transmission rate of the virus, and importantly the unit size. Moreover, increasing the duration of the latent or the subclinical stages resulted in longer time to disease fade out. The proposed model is a simple and robust tool simulating the spread of ASFV within a pig house taking into account dynamics of ASFV spread and the unit size. The tool can be implemented in simulation models of ASFV spread between herds. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4735426 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-47354262016-02-11 Simulation of Spread of African Swine Fever, Including the Effects of Residues from Dead Animals Halasa, Tariq Boklund, Anette Bøtner, Anette Toft, Nils Thulke, Hans-Hermann Front Vet Sci Veterinary Science To study the spread of African swine fever (ASF) within a pig unit and the impact of unit size on ASF spread, a simulation model was created. In the model, an animal can be in one of the following stages: susceptible, latent, subclinical, clinical, or recovered. Animals can be infectious during the subclinical stage and are fully infectious during the clinical stage. ASF virus (ASFV) infection through residues of dead animals in the slurries was also modeled in an exponentially fading-out pattern. Low and high transmission rates for ASFV were tested in the model. Robustness analysis was carried out in order to study the impact of uncertain parameters on model predictions. The results showed that the disease may fade out within the pig unit without a major outbreak. Furthermore, they showed that spread of ASFV is dependent on the infectiousness of subclinical animals and the residues of dead animals, the transmission rate of the virus, and importantly the unit size. Moreover, increasing the duration of the latent or the subclinical stages resulted in longer time to disease fade out. The proposed model is a simple and robust tool simulating the spread of ASFV within a pig house taking into account dynamics of ASFV spread and the unit size. The tool can be implemented in simulation models of ASFV spread between herds. Frontiers Media S.A. 2016-02-02 /pmc/articles/PMC4735426/ /pubmed/26870740 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2016.00006 Text en Copyright © 2016 Halasa, Boklund, Bøtner, Toft and Thulke. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Veterinary Science Halasa, Tariq Boklund, Anette Bøtner, Anette Toft, Nils Thulke, Hans-Hermann Simulation of Spread of African Swine Fever, Including the Effects of Residues from Dead Animals |
title | Simulation of Spread of African Swine Fever, Including the Effects of Residues from Dead Animals |
title_full | Simulation of Spread of African Swine Fever, Including the Effects of Residues from Dead Animals |
title_fullStr | Simulation of Spread of African Swine Fever, Including the Effects of Residues from Dead Animals |
title_full_unstemmed | Simulation of Spread of African Swine Fever, Including the Effects of Residues from Dead Animals |
title_short | Simulation of Spread of African Swine Fever, Including the Effects of Residues from Dead Animals |
title_sort | simulation of spread of african swine fever, including the effects of residues from dead animals |
topic | Veterinary Science |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4735426/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26870740 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2016.00006 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT halasatariq simulationofspreadofafricanswinefeverincludingtheeffectsofresiduesfromdeadanimals AT boklundanette simulationofspreadofafricanswinefeverincludingtheeffectsofresiduesfromdeadanimals AT bøtneranette simulationofspreadofafricanswinefeverincludingtheeffectsofresiduesfromdeadanimals AT toftnils simulationofspreadofafricanswinefeverincludingtheeffectsofresiduesfromdeadanimals AT thulkehanshermann simulationofspreadofafricanswinefeverincludingtheeffectsofresiduesfromdeadanimals |