Echo-Doppler–derived indexes of ventricular stiffness and ventriculo-arterial interaction as predictors of new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients with heart failure

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in patients with heart failure (HF) and worsens their prognosis. Vulnerability to changes in loading is an important factor in the development of AF and is strongly influenced by ventricular stiffness and ventriculo-arterial interaction. The aim of this study was to investigate predictors of AF development in patients with HF. METHODS: We studied 349 patients with stable HF. The following parameters of ventricular stiffness and ventriculo-arterial interaction were derived from echo-Doppler measurements: left ventricular (LV) diastolic elastance (Ed), effective arterial elastance (Ea), LV end-systolic elastance (Ees) and ventricular–vascular coupling index (VVI). RESULTS: AF occurred in 57 (16.3 %) patients over a median follow up of 30.3 months. Echo-Doppler–derived parameters of ventricular stiffness and ventriculo-arterial interaction were closely associated with HF severity. Ed was independently associated with AF after adjustment for age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and left atrial volume index (hazard ratio [HR] 5.49, p = 0.018). Ea and VVI were also associated with new-onset AF (HR 1.66, p = 0.027, and HR 1.06, p = 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Echo-Doppler indexes of ventricular stiffness are closely associated with HF severity. LV diastolic elastance (Ed) is the strongest predictor of new-onset AF in HF patients. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12947-016-0050-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.