Trends in Prevalence of Thyroid Cancer Over Three Decades: A Retrospective Cohort Study of 17,526 Surgical Patients

INTRODUCTION: Thyroid cancer (TC) incidence has been increasing in recent years. The aim of this study was to investigate our institution-based estimates of operative volumes for TC over the last three decades. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing thyroid surgery at our institution. Patient characteristics were reviewed in three subgroups: Group I (treated in 1981–1986), Group II (treated in 1987–2002), and Group III (treated in 2003–2012). RESULTS: TC was diagnosed in 1578/17,526 (9.0 %) thyroid operations. Incidence of TC increased from 3.7 % in Group I to 10.4 % in Group III (p < 0.001). Incidence of papillary TC increased form 40.6 % in Group I to 81.3 % in Group III (p < 0.001). In the latter group, 23.5 % of all papillary TCs were diagnosed in patients with Hashimoto’s disease. Meanwhile, incidence of anaplastic TC decreased from 16.2 % in Group I to 2.1 % in Group III patients (p < 0.001). pT1 tumors were diagnosed in 8.1 % Group I and 54.8 % Group III (p < 0.001), whereas pT4 tumors were identified in 40.5 % Group I, 2.4 % Group II, and 0.84 % Group III subjects (p < 0.001). pT3 tumors were found in 51.6 % Group I, whereas multifocal papillary TCs were found in 15.7 % Group III patients, the latter with a higher prevalence of pN1 stage (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The following trends in surgical volume for TC were identified throughout the study period: a fivefold increase of thyroid operations for TC, a threefold increase in incidence of papillary TC, and an eightfold decrease in incidence of anaplastic TC. It is of interest that a significant increase in incidence of multifocal papillary TC in young female patients with Hashimoto’s disease was found over time.