Predictive Factors for Subjective Improvement in Lumbar Spinal Stenosis Patients with Nonsurgical Treatment: A 3-Year Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the predictive factors for subjective improvement with nonsurgical treatment in consecutive patients with lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with LSS were enrolled from 17 medical centres in Japan. We followed up 274 patients (151 men; mean age, 71 ± 7.4 years) for 3 years. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess the predictive factors for subjective symptom improvement with nonsurgical treatment. RESULTS: In 30% of patients, conservative treatment led to a subjective improvement in the symptoms; in 70% of patients, the symptoms remained unchanged, worsened, or required surgical treatment. The multivariable analysis of predictive factors for subjective improvement with nonsurgical treatment showed that the absence of cauda equina symptoms (only radicular symptoms) had an odds ratio (OR) of 3.31 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50–7.31); absence of degenerative spondylolisthesis/scoliosis had an OR of 2.53 (95% CI: 1.13–5.65); <1-year duration of illness had an OR of 3.81 (95% CI: 1.46–9.98); and hypertension had an OR of 2.09 (95% CI: 0.92–4.78). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive factors for subjective symptom improvement with nonsurgical treatment in LSS patients were the presence of only radicular symptoms, absence of degenerative spondylolisthesis/scoliosis, and an illness duration of <1 year.