Mortality and Morbidity of Urban Road Traffic Crashes in Africa: Capture-Recapture Estimates in Bamako, Mali, 2012

BACKGROUND: Low- and middle-income countries are currently facing the massive public health challenge of road traffic injuries. The lack of effective surveillance systems hinders proper assessment of epidemiologic status and intervention priorities. The objective of our study was to estimate the mortality and morbidity attributable to road crashes in Bamako, Mali using the capture-recapture method. METHODS: During the 1 January, 2012–31 April, 2012 period, we collected data on road traffic crashes from the road accident registers of the police forces of Bamako, Mali on the one hand, and from a register kept by health facilities in the same area. An automatic, then manual matching procedure was performed to find pairs of records related to the same crash victims. The number of victims and the number of fatalities were estimated by the capture-recapture method using the Chapman estimator. RESULTS: The health facility and the police registries included 3587 and 1432 records, respectively. The matching procedure identified 603 common records, 31 of which were fatalities. The annual incidence estimate for road victims was 1038 in 100 000 and the annual incidence estimate for road fatalities was 12 in 100 000. Victims from both sources were more likely to be male, in the 15–34 age group, and almost half of all injured road users and two in three fatalities were using motorized two-wheelers. One victim out of five was a pedestrian. CONCLUSION: Our estimates are in line with available literature data from low-income countries. While more cases were reported by health facilities than by police forces, we believe that an effective surveillance system should not be based solely on medical reports as much would be missing as regards the crash circumstances and characteristics.