Decreasing incidence of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm already before start of screening

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has led to a decrease in ruptured AAA (rAAA) incidence. METHOD: The Malmö population was evaluated regarding the incidence of rAAA and elective AAA surgery 4 years before and after start of AAA-screening in 2010. Data from 1971 to 1986 (J Vasc Surg 18:74–80, 1993) and 2000–2004 (J Vasc Surg 44:237-43, 2006), enabled analysis of trends over time. RESULTS: Analysis of time-periods 1971–1986, 2000–2004, 2006–2010 and 2010–2014 showed an incidence of rAAA of 5.6 (4.9–6.3), 10.6 (8.9–12.4), 6.1 (4.6–7.6) and 4.0 (2.9–5.1), respectively. In men aged 60–69 years the incidences were 16.0 (10.7–21.3), 45.6 (27.7–63.4), 19.3 (9.2–35.3) and 8.9 (2.8–20.6), respectively. The incidences of elective AAA surgery in men aged 60–69 years were 22.9 (16.5–29.2), 34.6 (19.1–50.2), 9.7 (1.2–18.5) and 44.2 (27.0–61.6), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A decrease in incidence of rAAA in men was evident before the implementation of screening. We were yet not able to demonstrate a certain reduction in rAAA incidence after the start of screening.