Noninvasive Fibrosis Marker Can Predict Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Radiofrequency Ablation

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Tumor recurrence after curative therapy is common for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). As fibrosis and chronic inflammation contribute to the progression of HCC, we aimed to identify the predictive value of inflammatory and fibrosis markers for HCC recurrence after curative therapy using radiofrequency ablation (RFA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the records of patients with HCC treated with RFA between October 2005 and September 2013. The median duration of follow-up was 40 months (4–95 months). Inflammatory and fibrosis markers and demographic and clinical data were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards model using univariate and multivariate analyses and longitudinal analysis. RESULTS: A total of 98 patients were included for analysis. There were 54 cases of HCC recurrence (55.1%). The aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI; 2.3 ± 1.8 vs. 1.3 ± 1.4, P = 0.018) was significantly higher in the recurrence group than in the recurrence-free group. In multivariate analysis, APRI (hazard ratio, 2.64; confidence interval, 1.488–4.714; P = 0.001) was an independent risk factor for tumor recurrence. In particular, patients with APRI >1.38 showed a higher recurrence rate than patients with APRI ≤1.38 (P < 0.001). Longitudinal analysis showed persistently higher APRI values when assessed 12 months after RFA in patients who developed recurrence during follow-up than those who remained recurrence-free. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show that a high APRI value is associated with HCC recurrence after RFA. Therefore, APRI could play an important role in predicting HCC recurrence after RFA.