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Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments

1. The dynamics of structured plant populations in variable environments can be decomposed into the ‘asymptotic’ growth contributed by vital rates, and ‘transient’ growth caused by deviation from stable stage structure. 2. We apply this framework to a large, global data base of longitudinal studies...

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Autores principales: McDonald, Jenni L., Stott, Iain, Townley, Stuart, Hodgson, Dave J.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4768644/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26973355
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12528
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author McDonald, Jenni L.
Stott, Iain
Townley, Stuart
Hodgson, Dave J.
author_facet McDonald, Jenni L.
Stott, Iain
Townley, Stuart
Hodgson, Dave J.
author_sort McDonald, Jenni L.
collection PubMed
description 1. The dynamics of structured plant populations in variable environments can be decomposed into the ‘asymptotic’ growth contributed by vital rates, and ‘transient’ growth caused by deviation from stable stage structure. 2. We apply this framework to a large, global data base of longitudinal studies of projection matrix models for plant populations. We ask, what is the relative contribution of transient boom and bust to the dynamic trajectories of plant populations in stochastic environments? Is this contribution patterned by phylogeny, growth form or the number of life stages per population and per species? 3. We show that transients contribute nearly 50% or more to the resulting trajectories, depending on whether transient and stable contributions are partitioned according to their absolute or net contribution to population dynamics. 4. Both transient contributions and asymptotic contributions are influenced heavily by the number of life stages modelled. We discuss whether the drivers of transients should be considered real ecological phenomena, or artefacts of study design and modelling strategy. We find no evidence for phylogenetic signal in the contribution of transients to stochastic growth, nor clear patterns related to growth form. We find a surprising tendency for plant populations to boom rather than bust in response to temporal changes in vital rates and that stochastic growth rates increase with increasing tendency to boom. 5. Synthesis. Transient dynamics contribute significantly to stochastic population dynamics but are often overlooked in ecological and evolutionary studies that employ stochastic analyses. Better understanding of transient responses to fluctuating population structure will yield better management strategies for plant populations, and better grasp of evolutionary dynamics in the real world.
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spelling pubmed-47686442016-03-09 Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments McDonald, Jenni L. Stott, Iain Townley, Stuart Hodgson, Dave J. J Ecol British Ecological Society Special Feature: Demography Beyond the Population 1. The dynamics of structured plant populations in variable environments can be decomposed into the ‘asymptotic’ growth contributed by vital rates, and ‘transient’ growth caused by deviation from stable stage structure. 2. We apply this framework to a large, global data base of longitudinal studies of projection matrix models for plant populations. We ask, what is the relative contribution of transient boom and bust to the dynamic trajectories of plant populations in stochastic environments? Is this contribution patterned by phylogeny, growth form or the number of life stages per population and per species? 3. We show that transients contribute nearly 50% or more to the resulting trajectories, depending on whether transient and stable contributions are partitioned according to their absolute or net contribution to population dynamics. 4. Both transient contributions and asymptotic contributions are influenced heavily by the number of life stages modelled. We discuss whether the drivers of transients should be considered real ecological phenomena, or artefacts of study design and modelling strategy. We find no evidence for phylogenetic signal in the contribution of transients to stochastic growth, nor clear patterns related to growth form. We find a surprising tendency for plant populations to boom rather than bust in response to temporal changes in vital rates and that stochastic growth rates increase with increasing tendency to boom. 5. Synthesis. Transient dynamics contribute significantly to stochastic population dynamics but are often overlooked in ecological and evolutionary studies that employ stochastic analyses. Better understanding of transient responses to fluctuating population structure will yield better management strategies for plant populations, and better grasp of evolutionary dynamics in the real world. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2016-02-22 2016-03 /pmc/articles/PMC4768644/ /pubmed/26973355 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12528 Text en © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle British Ecological Society Special Feature: Demography Beyond the Population
McDonald, Jenni L.
Stott, Iain
Townley, Stuart
Hodgson, Dave J.
Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments
title Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments
title_full Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments
title_fullStr Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments
title_full_unstemmed Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments
title_short Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments
title_sort transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments
topic British Ecological Society Special Feature: Demography Beyond the Population
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4768644/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26973355
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12528
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