Enhancement of Visual Field Predictions with Pointwise Exponential Regression (PER) and Pointwise Linear Regression (PLR)

PURPOSE: The study was conducted to evaluate threshold smoothing algorithms to enhance prediction of the rates of visual field (VF) worsening in glaucoma. METHODS: We studied 798 patients with primary open-angle glaucoma and 6 or more years of follow-up who underwent 8 or more VF examinations. Thresholds at each VF location for the first 4 years or first half of the follow-up time (whichever was greater) were smoothed with clusters defined by the nearest neighbor (NN), Garway-Heath, Glaucoma Hemifield Test (GHT), and weighting by the correlation of rates at all other VF locations. Thresholds were regressed with a pointwise exponential regression (PER) model and a pointwise linear regression (PLR) model. Smaller root mean square error (RMSE) values of the differences between the observed and the predicted thresholds at last two follow-ups indicated better model predictions. RESULTS: The mean (SD) follow-up times for the smoothing and prediction phase were 5.3 (1.5) and 10.5 (3.9) years. The mean RMSE values for the PER and PLR models were unsmoothed data, 6.09 and 6.55; NN, 3.40 and 3.42; Garway-Heath, 3.47 and 3.48; GHT, 3.57 and 3.74; and correlation of rates, 3.59 and 3.64. CONCLUSIONS: Smoothed VF data predicted better than unsmoothed data. Nearest neighbor provided the best predictions; PER also predicted consistently more accurately than PLR. Smoothing algorithms should be used when forecasting VF results with PER or PLR. TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCE: The application of smoothing algorithms on VF data can improve forecasting in VF points to assist in treatment decisions.