Depression predicts future emergency hospital admissions in primary care patients with chronic physical illness

OBJECTIVE: More than 15 million people currently suffer from a chronic physical illness in England. The objective of this study was to determine whether depression is independently associated with prospective emergency hospital admission in patients with chronic physical illness. METHOD: 1860 primary care patients in socially deprived areas of Manchester with at least one of four exemplar chronic physical conditions completed a questionnaire about physical and mental health, including a measure of depression. Emergency hospital admissions were recorded using GP records for the year before and the year following completion of the questionnaire. RESULTS: The numbers of patients who had at least one emergency admission in the year before and the year after completion of the questionnaire were 221/1411 (15.7%) and 234/1398 (16.7%) respectively. The following factors were independently associated with an increased risk of prospective emergency admission to hospital: having no partner (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.15); having ischaemic heart disease (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.46); having a threatening experience (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.29); depression (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.40); and emergency hospital admission in the year prior to questionnaire completion (OR 3.41, 95% CI 1.98 to 5.86). CONCLUSION: To prevent potentially avoidable emergency hospital admissions, greater efforts should be made to detect and treat co-morbid depression in people with chronic physical illness in primary care, with a particular focus on patients who have no partner, have experienced threatening life events, and have had a recent emergency hospital admission.