Cargando…
Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the King...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Oxford University Press
2016
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4801139/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26851269 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv452 |
_version_ | 1782422548469776384 |
---|---|
author | Lessler, Justin Salje, Henrik Van Kerkhove, Maria D. Ferguson, Neil M. Cauchemez, Simon Rodriquez-Barraquer, Isabel Hakeem, Rafat Jombart, Thibaut Aguas, Ricardo Al-Barrak, Ali Cummings, Derek A. T. Algarni, Homud AlHarbi, Khalid Clapham, Hannah Collins, Caitlin Cori, Anne Donnelly, Christl Fraser, Christophe Garske, Tini Grabowski, M. Kate Mills, Harriet Moore, Sean M. Nouvellet, Pierre Riley, Steven Truelove, Shaun Turkistani, Abdulhafiz |
author_facet | Lessler, Justin Salje, Henrik Van Kerkhove, Maria D. Ferguson, Neil M. Cauchemez, Simon Rodriquez-Barraquer, Isabel Hakeem, Rafat Jombart, Thibaut Aguas, Ricardo Al-Barrak, Ali Cummings, Derek A. T. Algarni, Homud AlHarbi, Khalid Clapham, Hannah Collins, Caitlin Cori, Anne Donnelly, Christl Fraser, Christophe Garske, Tini Grabowski, M. Kate Mills, Harriet Moore, Sean M. Nouvellet, Pierre Riley, Steven Truelove, Shaun Turkistani, Abdulhafiz |
author_sort | Lessler, Justin |
collection | PubMed |
description | Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4801139 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | Oxford University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-48011392017-04-01 Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Lessler, Justin Salje, Henrik Van Kerkhove, Maria D. Ferguson, Neil M. Cauchemez, Simon Rodriquez-Barraquer, Isabel Hakeem, Rafat Jombart, Thibaut Aguas, Ricardo Al-Barrak, Ali Cummings, Derek A. T. Algarni, Homud AlHarbi, Khalid Clapham, Hannah Collins, Caitlin Cori, Anne Donnelly, Christl Fraser, Christophe Garske, Tini Grabowski, M. Kate Mills, Harriet Moore, Sean M. Nouvellet, Pierre Riley, Steven Truelove, Shaun Turkistani, Abdulhafiz Am J Epidemiol Original Contributions Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed. Oxford University Press 2016-04-01 2016-02-04 /pmc/articles/PMC4801139/ /pubmed/26851269 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv452 Text en © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections. |
spellingShingle | Original Contributions Lessler, Justin Salje, Henrik Van Kerkhove, Maria D. Ferguson, Neil M. Cauchemez, Simon Rodriquez-Barraquer, Isabel Hakeem, Rafat Jombart, Thibaut Aguas, Ricardo Al-Barrak, Ali Cummings, Derek A. T. Algarni, Homud AlHarbi, Khalid Clapham, Hannah Collins, Caitlin Cori, Anne Donnelly, Christl Fraser, Christophe Garske, Tini Grabowski, M. Kate Mills, Harriet Moore, Sean M. Nouvellet, Pierre Riley, Steven Truelove, Shaun Turkistani, Abdulhafiz Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia |
title | Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia |
title_full | Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia |
title_fullStr | Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia |
title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia |
title_short | Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia |
title_sort | estimating the severity and subclinical burden of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection in the kingdom of saudi arabia |
topic | Original Contributions |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4801139/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26851269 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv452 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT lesslerjustin estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT saljehenrik estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT vankerkhovemariad estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT fergusonneilm estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT cauchemezsimon estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT rodriquezbarraquerisabel estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT hakeemrafat estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT jombartthibaut estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT aguasricardo estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT albarrakali estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT cummingsderekat estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT algarnihomud estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT alharbikhalid estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT claphamhannah estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT collinscaitlin estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT corianne estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT donnellychristl estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT fraserchristophe estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT garsketini estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT grabowskimkate estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT millsharriet estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT mooreseanm estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT nouvelletpierre estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT rileysteven estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT trueloveshaun estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia AT turkistaniabdulhafiz estimatingtheseverityandsubclinicalburdenofmiddleeastrespiratorysyndromecoronavirusinfectioninthekingdomofsaudiarabia |