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Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the King...

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Autores principales: Lessler, Justin, Salje, Henrik, Van Kerkhove, Maria D., Ferguson, Neil M., Cauchemez, Simon, Rodriquez-Barraquer, Isabel, Hakeem, Rafat, Jombart, Thibaut, Aguas, Ricardo, Al-Barrak, Ali, Cummings, Derek A. T., Algarni, Homud, AlHarbi, Khalid, Clapham, Hannah, Collins, Caitlin, Cori, Anne, Donnelly, Christl, Fraser, Christophe, Garske, Tini, Grabowski, M. Kate, Mills, Harriet, Moore, Sean M., Nouvellet, Pierre, Riley, Steven, Truelove, Shaun, Turkistani, Abdulhafiz
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4801139/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26851269
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv452
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author Lessler, Justin
Salje, Henrik
Van Kerkhove, Maria D.
Ferguson, Neil M.
Cauchemez, Simon
Rodriquez-Barraquer, Isabel
Hakeem, Rafat
Jombart, Thibaut
Aguas, Ricardo
Al-Barrak, Ali
Cummings, Derek A. T.
Algarni, Homud
AlHarbi, Khalid
Clapham, Hannah
Collins, Caitlin
Cori, Anne
Donnelly, Christl
Fraser, Christophe
Garske, Tini
Grabowski, M. Kate
Mills, Harriet
Moore, Sean M.
Nouvellet, Pierre
Riley, Steven
Truelove, Shaun
Turkistani, Abdulhafiz
author_facet Lessler, Justin
Salje, Henrik
Van Kerkhove, Maria D.
Ferguson, Neil M.
Cauchemez, Simon
Rodriquez-Barraquer, Isabel
Hakeem, Rafat
Jombart, Thibaut
Aguas, Ricardo
Al-Barrak, Ali
Cummings, Derek A. T.
Algarni, Homud
AlHarbi, Khalid
Clapham, Hannah
Collins, Caitlin
Cori, Anne
Donnelly, Christl
Fraser, Christophe
Garske, Tini
Grabowski, M. Kate
Mills, Harriet
Moore, Sean M.
Nouvellet, Pierre
Riley, Steven
Truelove, Shaun
Turkistani, Abdulhafiz
author_sort Lessler, Justin
collection PubMed
description Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed.
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spelling pubmed-48011392017-04-01 Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Lessler, Justin Salje, Henrik Van Kerkhove, Maria D. Ferguson, Neil M. Cauchemez, Simon Rodriquez-Barraquer, Isabel Hakeem, Rafat Jombart, Thibaut Aguas, Ricardo Al-Barrak, Ali Cummings, Derek A. T. Algarni, Homud AlHarbi, Khalid Clapham, Hannah Collins, Caitlin Cori, Anne Donnelly, Christl Fraser, Christophe Garske, Tini Grabowski, M. Kate Mills, Harriet Moore, Sean M. Nouvellet, Pierre Riley, Steven Truelove, Shaun Turkistani, Abdulhafiz Am J Epidemiol Original Contributions Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed. Oxford University Press 2016-04-01 2016-02-04 /pmc/articles/PMC4801139/ /pubmed/26851269 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv452 Text en © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections.
spellingShingle Original Contributions
Lessler, Justin
Salje, Henrik
Van Kerkhove, Maria D.
Ferguson, Neil M.
Cauchemez, Simon
Rodriquez-Barraquer, Isabel
Hakeem, Rafat
Jombart, Thibaut
Aguas, Ricardo
Al-Barrak, Ali
Cummings, Derek A. T.
Algarni, Homud
AlHarbi, Khalid
Clapham, Hannah
Collins, Caitlin
Cori, Anne
Donnelly, Christl
Fraser, Christophe
Garske, Tini
Grabowski, M. Kate
Mills, Harriet
Moore, Sean M.
Nouvellet, Pierre
Riley, Steven
Truelove, Shaun
Turkistani, Abdulhafiz
Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
title Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
title_full Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
title_fullStr Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
title_short Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
title_sort estimating the severity and subclinical burden of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection in the kingdom of saudi arabia
topic Original Contributions
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4801139/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26851269
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv452
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