Fitting the Incidence Data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, Based on Dengue Transmission Modellings Considering Time-Dependent Entomological Parameters

Four time-dependent dengue transmission models are considered in order to fit the incidence data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, recorded from October 1(st) 1995 to September 30(th) 2012. The entomological parameters are allowed to depend on temperature and precipitation, while the carrying capac...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Yang, Hyun Mo, Boldrini, José Luiz, Fassoni, Artur César, Freitas, Luiz Fernando Souza, Gomez, Miller Ceron, de Lima, Karla Katerine Barboza, Andrade, Valmir Roberto, Freitas, André Ricardo Ribas
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2016
Materias:
Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4807111/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27010654
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0152186
Descripción
Sumario:Four time-dependent dengue transmission models are considered in order to fit the incidence data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, recorded from October 1(st) 1995 to September 30(th) 2012. The entomological parameters are allowed to depend on temperature and precipitation, while the carrying capacity and the hatching of eggs depend only on precipitation. The whole period of incidence of dengue is split into four periods, due to the fact that the model is formulated considering the circulation of only one serotype. Dengue transmission parameters from human to mosquito and mosquito to human are fitted for each one of the periods. The time varying partial and overall effective reproduction numbers are obtained to explain the incidence of dengue provided by the models.

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