Overweight, resting heart rate, and prediabetes/diabetes: A population-based prospective cohort study among Inner Mongolians in China

We aimed to investigate the cumulative effect of overweight and resting heart rate on prediabetes/diabetes incidence in an 10-year follow-up study in Inner Mongolians. Among 1729 participants who were free from prediabetes and diabetes at baseline, 503 and 155 subjects developed prediabetes and diabetes, respectively. We categorized the participants into 4 subgroups according to overweight and resting heart rate status. The multivariate-adjusted OR (95% CI) in normal weight with heart rate ≥80 bpm, overweight with heart rate <80 bpm, and overweight with heart rate ≥80 bpm were 1.24 (0.95–1.61), 1.83 (1.29–2.61), 2.20 (1.41–3.45) for prediabetes and 1.52 (0.97–2.40), 3.64 (2.21–6.01), 4.61 (2.47–8.61) for diabetes, respectively, compared with normal weight with heart rate <80 bpm. The area under ROC curve (AUC) for the prediction of diabetes incidence for a model containing overweight and resting heart rate, along with conventional factors (AUC = 0.751), was significantly (P = 0.003) larger than the one containing only conventional factors (AUC = 0.707). Our study indicated that overweight was an independent risk factor of prediabetes and diabetes, and overweight with faster resting heart rate might further increase the risk of prediabetes and diabetes.