The Optimal Cut-Off Value of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio for Predicting Prognosis in Adult Patients with Henoch–Schönlein Purpura

BACKGROUND: The development of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) can be a concern in the management of Henoch–Schönlein purpura (HSP). We aimed to evaluate whether the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is associated with the prognosis of adult patients with HSP. METHODS: Clinical data including the NLR of adult patients with HSP were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were classified into three groups as follows: (a) simple recovery, (b) wax & wane without GI bleeding, and (c) development of GI bleeding. The optimal cut-off value was determined using a receiver operating characteristics curve and the Youden index. RESULTS: A total of 66 adult patients were enrolled. The NLR was higher in the GI bleeding group than in the simple recovery or wax & wane group (simple recovery vs. wax & wane vs. GI bleeding; median [IQR], 2.32 [1.61–3.11] vs. 3.18 [2.16–3.71] vs. 7.52 [4.91–10.23], P<0.001). For the purpose of predicting simple recovery, the optimal cut-off value of NLR was 3.18, and the sensitivity and specificity were 74.1% and 75.0%, respectively. For predicting development of GI bleeding, the optimal cut-off value was 3.90 and the sensitivity and specificity were 87.5% and 88.6%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The NLR is useful for predicting development of GI bleeding as well as simple recovery without symptom relapse. Two different cut-off values of NLR, 3.18 for predicting an easy recovery without symptom relapse and 3.90 for predicting GI bleeding can be used in adult patients with HSP.