Consensus Statement on Electronic Health Predictive Analytics: A Guiding Framework to Address Challenges

CONTEXT: The recent explosion in available electronic health record (EHR) data is motivating a rapid expansion of electronic health care predictive analytic (e-HPA) applications, defined as the use of electronic algorithms that forecast clinical events in real time with the intent to improve patient outcomes and reduce costs. There is an urgent need for a systematic framework to guide the development and application of e-HPA to ensure that the field develops in a scientifically sound, ethical, and efficient manner. OBJECTIVES: Building upon earlier frameworks of model development and utilization, we identify the emerging opportunities and challenges of e-HPA, propose a framework that enables us to realize these opportunities, address these challenges, and motivate e-HPA stakeholders to both adopt and continuously refine the framework as the applications of e-HPA emerge. METHODS: To achieve these objectives, 17 experts with diverse expertise including methodology, ethics, legal, regulation, and health care delivery systems were assembled to identify emerging opportunities and challenges of e-HPA and to propose a framework to guide the development and application of e-HPA. FINDINGS: 1. Data Barriers: Establish mechanisms within the scientific community to support data sharing for predictive model development and testing. 2. Transparency: Set standards around e-HPA validation based on principles of scientific transparency and reproducibility. 3. Ethics: Develop both individual-centered and society-centered risk-benefit approaches to evaluate e-HPA. 4. Regulation and Certification: Construct a self-regulation and certification framework within e-HPA. 5. Education and Training: Make significant changes to medical, nursing, and paraprofessional curricula by including training for understanding, evaluating, and utilizing predictive models.