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Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation
Safeguarding the world's remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically combine realistic assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human die...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group
2016
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4838894/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27092437 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11382 |
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author | Erb, Karl-Heinz Lauk, Christian Kastner, Thomas Mayer, Andreas Theurl, Michaela C. Haberl, Helmut |
author_facet | Erb, Karl-Heinz Lauk, Christian Kastner, Thomas Mayer, Andreas Theurl, Michaela C. Haberl, Helmut |
author_sort | Erb, Karl-Heinz |
collection | PubMed |
description | Safeguarding the world's remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically combine realistic assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human diets. For each scenario, we determine whether the supply of crop products meets the demand and whether the grazing intensity stays within plausible limits. We find that many options exist to meet the global food supply in 2050 without deforestation, even at low crop-yield levels. Within the option space, individual scenarios differ greatly in terms of biomass harvest, cropland demand and grazing intensity, depending primarily on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of human diets. Grazing constraints strongly limit the option space. Without the option to encroach into natural or semi-natural land, trade volumes will rise in scenarios with globally converging diets, thereby decreasing the food self-sufficiency of many developing regions. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4838894 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-48388942016-05-04 Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation Erb, Karl-Heinz Lauk, Christian Kastner, Thomas Mayer, Andreas Theurl, Michaela C. Haberl, Helmut Nat Commun Article Safeguarding the world's remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically combine realistic assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human diets. For each scenario, we determine whether the supply of crop products meets the demand and whether the grazing intensity stays within plausible limits. We find that many options exist to meet the global food supply in 2050 without deforestation, even at low crop-yield levels. Within the option space, individual scenarios differ greatly in terms of biomass harvest, cropland demand and grazing intensity, depending primarily on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of human diets. Grazing constraints strongly limit the option space. Without the option to encroach into natural or semi-natural land, trade volumes will rise in scenarios with globally converging diets, thereby decreasing the food self-sufficiency of many developing regions. Nature Publishing Group 2016-04-19 /pmc/articles/PMC4838894/ /pubmed/27092437 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11382 Text en Copyright © 2016, Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
spellingShingle | Article Erb, Karl-Heinz Lauk, Christian Kastner, Thomas Mayer, Andreas Theurl, Michaela C. Haberl, Helmut Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation |
title | Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation |
title_full | Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation |
title_fullStr | Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation |
title_full_unstemmed | Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation |
title_short | Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation |
title_sort | exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4838894/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27092437 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11382 |
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