Cargando…

Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation

Safeguarding the world's remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically combine realistic assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human die...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Erb, Karl-Heinz, Lauk, Christian, Kastner, Thomas, Mayer, Andreas, Theurl, Michaela C., Haberl, Helmut
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4838894/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27092437
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11382
_version_ 1782428055361290240
author Erb, Karl-Heinz
Lauk, Christian
Kastner, Thomas
Mayer, Andreas
Theurl, Michaela C.
Haberl, Helmut
author_facet Erb, Karl-Heinz
Lauk, Christian
Kastner, Thomas
Mayer, Andreas
Theurl, Michaela C.
Haberl, Helmut
author_sort Erb, Karl-Heinz
collection PubMed
description Safeguarding the world's remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically combine realistic assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human diets. For each scenario, we determine whether the supply of crop products meets the demand and whether the grazing intensity stays within plausible limits. We find that many options exist to meet the global food supply in 2050 without deforestation, even at low crop-yield levels. Within the option space, individual scenarios differ greatly in terms of biomass harvest, cropland demand and grazing intensity, depending primarily on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of human diets. Grazing constraints strongly limit the option space. Without the option to encroach into natural or semi-natural land, trade volumes will rise in scenarios with globally converging diets, thereby decreasing the food self-sufficiency of many developing regions.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-4838894
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2016
publisher Nature Publishing Group
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-48388942016-05-04 Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation Erb, Karl-Heinz Lauk, Christian Kastner, Thomas Mayer, Andreas Theurl, Michaela C. Haberl, Helmut Nat Commun Article Safeguarding the world's remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically combine realistic assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human diets. For each scenario, we determine whether the supply of crop products meets the demand and whether the grazing intensity stays within plausible limits. We find that many options exist to meet the global food supply in 2050 without deforestation, even at low crop-yield levels. Within the option space, individual scenarios differ greatly in terms of biomass harvest, cropland demand and grazing intensity, depending primarily on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of human diets. Grazing constraints strongly limit the option space. Without the option to encroach into natural or semi-natural land, trade volumes will rise in scenarios with globally converging diets, thereby decreasing the food self-sufficiency of many developing regions. Nature Publishing Group 2016-04-19 /pmc/articles/PMC4838894/ /pubmed/27092437 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11382 Text en Copyright © 2016, Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
spellingShingle Article
Erb, Karl-Heinz
Lauk, Christian
Kastner, Thomas
Mayer, Andreas
Theurl, Michaela C.
Haberl, Helmut
Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation
title Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation
title_full Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation
title_fullStr Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation
title_full_unstemmed Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation
title_short Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation
title_sort exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4838894/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27092437
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11382
work_keys_str_mv AT erbkarlheinz exploringthebiophysicaloptionspaceforfeedingtheworldwithoutdeforestation
AT laukchristian exploringthebiophysicaloptionspaceforfeedingtheworldwithoutdeforestation
AT kastnerthomas exploringthebiophysicaloptionspaceforfeedingtheworldwithoutdeforestation
AT mayerandreas exploringthebiophysicaloptionspaceforfeedingtheworldwithoutdeforestation
AT theurlmichaelac exploringthebiophysicaloptionspaceforfeedingtheworldwithoutdeforestation
AT haberlhelmut exploringthebiophysicaloptionspaceforfeedingtheworldwithoutdeforestation