Potential Implications of Climate Change on Aegilops Species Distribution: Sympatry of These Crop Wild Relatives with the Major European Crop Triticum aestivum and Conservation Issues

Gene flow from crop to wild relatives is a common phenomenon which can lead to reduced adaptation of the wild relatives to natural ecosystems and/or increased adaptation to agrosystems (weediness). With global warming, wild relative distributions will likely change, thus modifying the width and/or location of co-occurrence zones where crop-wild hybridization events could occur (sympatry). This study investigates current and 2050 projected changes in sympatry levels between cultivated wheat and six of the most common Aegilops species in Europe. Projections were generated using MaxEnt on presence-only data, bioclimatic variables, and considering two migration hypotheses and two 2050 climate scenarios (RCP(4.5) and RCP(8.5)). Overall, a general decline in suitable climatic conditions for Aegilops species outside the European zone and a parallel increase in Europe were predicted. If no migration could occur, the decline was predicted to be more acute outside than within the European zone. The potential sympatry level in Europe by 2050 was predicted to increase at a higher rate than species richness, and most expansions were predicted to occur in three countries, which are currently among the top four wheat producers in Europe: Russia, France and Ukraine. The results are also discussed with regard to conservation issues of these crop wild relatives.