Trends in the Attack Rates, Incidence, and Mortality of Stroke during 1986–2012: Data of Kaunas (Lithuania) Stroke Registry

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of reliable epidemiological data on longitudinal trends in stroke attack rates, incidence, and mortality in the countries of the Baltic region. AIMS: The aim of the present study was to explore the longitudinal trends of stroke in middle-aged urban population of Lithuania during the period of 1986 through 2012. METHODS: All stroke events in the studied population were ascertained and validated according to the standardized criteria outlined by the WHO MONICA Project. The study included all patients in Kaunas (Lithuania) city aged 25 to 64 years who experienced a stroke between 1986 and 2012. Estimates of time-trends of the annual percentage change in stroke attack rates, incidence of stroke, and mortality from this condition were made by applying the Joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: During the study period, 9,992 stroke events were registered. The overall proportion of recurrent events was 25.7%. Overall, 18.9% of the events (20.0% in men, and 17.4% in women) were fatal within 28 days. During the period of 1986 to 2012, a flat trend in the incidence of stroke was observed among both male and female middle-aged inhabitants of Kaunas city, while attack rates were increasing due to the increase in recurrent strokes. Both mortality and 28-day case fatality of stroke declined significantly over the study period in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: An increase both in the incidence and recurrence of stroke among middle-aged men residing in Kaunas city and in the recurrence of stroke among women denotes the inefficiency of measures applied both for primary and secondary prevention of stroke in Lithuania. The revision of current prevention strategies and the introduction of new ones are of paramount importance in order to fight the epidemic of stroke.