Prediction of Mortality in Incident Hemodialysis Patients: A Validation and Comparison of CHADS2, CHA2DS2, and CCI Scores

BACKGROUND: The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2 scores are usually applied for stroke prediction in atrial fibrillation patients, and the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) is a commonly used scale for assessing morbidity. The role in assessing mortality with score system in hemodialysis is not clear and comparisons are lacking. We aimed at evaluating CHADS2, CHA2DS2, and CCI scores to predict mortality in incident hemodialysis patients. METHODS: Using data from the Nation Health Insurance system of Taiwan (NHIRD) from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2009, individuals ≧20 y/o who began hemodialysis identified by procedure code and receiving dialysis for > 3 months were included for our study. Renal transplantation patients after dialysis or PD patients were excluded. We calculated the CHADS2, CHA2DS2, and CCI score according to the ICD-9 code and categorized the patients into three groups in each system: 0–1, 2–3, over 4. A total of 3046 incident hemodialysis patients enrolled from NHIRD were examined for an association between the separate scoring systems (CHADS2, CHA2DS2, and CCI score) and mortality. RESULTS: CHADS2 and CHA2DS2 scores revealed good predictive value for total mortality (CHADS2 AUC = 0.805; CHA2DS2 AUC = 0.790). However, the CCI score did not reveal a similarly satisfying result (AUC = 0.576). CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that CHADS2 and CHA2DS2 scores can be applied for mortality prediction in incident hemodialysis patients.