Upper gastrointestinal bleeding as a risk factor for dialysis and all-cause mortality: a cohort study of chronic kidney disease patients in Taiwan

OBJECTIVE: Impaired renal function is associated with higher risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in patients with chronic kidney disease and not on dialysis (CKD-ND). It is unclear if UGIB increases risk of chronic dialysis. The aim of the study was to investigate risk of chronic dialysis in CKD-ND patients with UGIB. SETTING: All CKD-ND stage 3–5 patients of a CKD programme in one hospital between 2003 and 2009 were enrolled and prospectively followed until September 2012. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Chronic dialysis (dialysis for more than 3 months) started and all-cause mortality. The risk of chronic dialysis was analysed using Cox proportional hazard regression with adjustments for age, gender and renal function, followed by competing-risks analysis. RESULTS: We analysed 3126 CKD-ND patients with a mean age of 65±14 years for 2.8 years. Of 3126 patients, 387 (12.4%) patients developed UGIB, 989 (31.6%) patients started chronic dialysis and 197 (6.3%) patients died. UGIB increased all-cause mortality (adjusted HR (aHR): 1.51, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.13) and the risk of chronic dialysis (aHR; 1.29, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.50). The subdistribution HR (SHR) of UGIB for chronic dialysis (competing event: all-cause mortality) was 1.37 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.64) in competing-risks analysis with adjustments for age, renal function, gender, diabetes, haemoglobin, albumin and urine protein/creatinine ratio. CONCLUSIONS: UGIB is associated with increased risk of chronic dialysis and all-cause mortality in patients with CKD-ND stages 3–5. This association is independent of age, gender, basal renal function, haemoglobin, albumin and urine protein levels.